Five trump cards in trade with America – BBC News in Serbian
The trade war of the two largest economic forces in the world in full is swing.
Chinese exports in the United States faces customs and up to 245 percentand Beijing returned with imposes of 125 percent to America.
Consumers, companies and markets are saved for more uncertainty while Grow fears of global recession.
The Government of the Chinese President of Jiinping is reiterating that he is open to dialogue, but warns that, if necessary, will « fight until the end. »
Here’s what Beijing has in its own arsenal as the countermeasures of the Customs of the American President Donald Tramp.
China can run out pain (up to a specified point)
China is the second largest economic force in the world, which means that it can depreciate the kicks of customs better than some other smaller countries.
With more than a billion population, it also has a huge domestic market that can take part of pressure on exporters affected by customs.
Beijing can still be able to manage because the Chinese people spend enough.
But with a wide range of initiatives, from subsidies for household appliances to « silver trains » for traveling retirees, it could change.
And the Tramps of Customs have provided the Communist Party of China an even stronger incentive to deepen the consumer potential of the country.
Leadership could « and how to be ready to rip the capitulation before what they believe that the American aggression, » said the Lowlly, an expert in America and China’s trade relations from Peterson’s Institute in Washington.
As an authoritarian regime, China also has a higher pain threshold, because it is much less worried about short-term public opinion.
There is no choice behind the corner that will judge her leaders.
However, riots are a reason for care, especially since dissatisfaction already rules due to the current crisis of real estate and job loss.
Economic uncertainty around Customs is still one of the blows for young people who knew only for China in the rise.
The party relies on the nationalist sentiment to justify its own vengeful customs, with state media that invite people to « overcome the storm together. »
President of Djinping is perhaps worried, but so far, Beijing has only been defiant and confident tone.
One official calmed the land with words: « There will be no sultry of the world. »
China invests in the future
China has always been known as a « factory of the world », but now she started investing billions in it to become much more advanced.
Under Siev, Jinping, she participates in the race with America for technological dominance.
It invests huge funds in domestic technology, from renewable energy through chips to artificial intelligence.
Among such examples are the four Deepseek, praised as a worthy rival chatgptand BYD, who last year surpassed the Tesla, becoming the largest producer of electric cars in the world.
EPL loses valuable market share from local competitors such as Huaway and Vivo.
Recently, Beijing has announced plans to spend more than Trillion dollars in the next decade to support innovations in artificial intelligence.
American companies tried to move supply chains from China, but they have trouble finding the same infrastructure and qualified workforce elsewhere.
Chinese producers in each stage of the country supply chain has provided a decade’s advantage for which it will take time to replace.
This inviolable expertise in supply chain and government support have converted China to a powerful enemy in this trade war.
In a way, Beijing is preparing for this since the Tramp’s previous term.
Lessons from tramp 1.0
Ever since the Customs Tramps hit Chinese Solar Panels in 2018., Beijing accelerated plans for the future outside the World Order Ledden to America.
He invested billions in a controversial trade and infrastructure program, better known as a belt and road initiative, to strengthen ties with the so-called global south.
The expansion of trade with Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa performed in the desire of China to separate from the US Depending.
American farmers used to do 40 percent of Chinese import soy – that number today is a little above 20 percent.
After the last Trading War, Beijing intensified the cultivation of soybeans at home and bought record amounts of crops from Brazil, who is now his greatest supplier of soybeans.
« That tactic kills two flies with one blow.
« He deprives the American agricultural belt of the once dominant market and highlights the quality of Chinese food supply, » says Marina Juah, Collaborate from the Institute of Australia and China at the University of Technology in Sydney.
The United States is no longer the largest export market of China: that title now belongs to Southeast Asia.
Moreover, China is 2023. was the largest trading partner of 60 countries, almost twice as much as America.
As the world’s largest exporter, she made a record surplus of trillion dollars at the end of 2024. Years.
This does not mean that the United States, the world’s largest economic force, is not a key trading partner for China.
But that means that Washington will not be easy to make China in the corner.
After the report that the white house would use bilateral trade negotiations to insulate China, Beijing warned the countries not to « conclude agreements to the detriment of Chinese interests. »
This will be an impossible choice for most of the world.
« We can’t choose and we’ll never choose between China and America, » said the Minister of Malaysia Tengku Zafrul Aziz last week.
Watch the video: Why Chinese Deepseek Competition Chatgpt
China now knows what the tramp argists
Tramp did not win when the actions started steeply in early April to fall after his announcement of comprehensive customs, comparing his stunning imposes with « medicine ».
But he still made a sudden turn, pausing most of these customs for 90 days after the sudden sale of American government bonds.
These long-term government bonds are long been perceived as safe investments.
But the trade war shook the trust in those funds.
Meanwhile, Tramp indicated the deescalation of trade tensions with China, saying that Customs on Chinese goods will « significantly decline, but not to zero. »
And so, experts point out, Beijing now knows that the bond market can shake the tramp.
China holds about $ 700 billion in the US government bonds.
Japan, explicit American ally, is the only non-American owner who owns more than that.
Some argue that Beijing is given an advantage: Chinese media regularly run the idea of selling or non-American bonds as « weapons ».
But experts warn that China would not come out intact from such a situation.
Moreover, it would lead to huge losses for the Beijing market in the bond market and would destabilize Chinese Juan.
China can put pressure on the US government bonds « only to a certain point, » Dr. Jang says.
« China has a negotiating trump cards in the hands, but not financial weapons. »
Rare earth metals in a solid grip
What, however, China can use as a weapon is its almost monopoly to draw and refining rare earthen metals, the entire range of elements important for the production of advanced technology.
China has huge stocks of these, such as disprosal, used for magnets in electric vehicles and wind turbines, and a yttrium, which serves as a coating for hotter resistant to the heat resistant.
Beijing has already responded to the latest customs duty to limiting exports of rare earthen metals, which include some who are key to making artificial intelligence chips.
China consists of about 61 percent of the total production of rare earthen metals and 92 percent of their refinement, according to the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Although Australia, Japan and Vietnam began the mining of rare earthen elements, it would pass the years before China could be expelled from the supply chain.
In 2024, China banned exporting another critical mineral, antimony, which is crucial for various production processes.
Its price more than doubled panic purchases and pursuit for alternative suppliers.
The government is a fear that the same can happen to the market of rare earthen metals, which would seriously disrupt various industries, from electric cars to defense.
« All you can turn on or off most likely on rare earthen metals, » said earlier for BBC Thomas Krumer, director of international trade and investment girgers.
« The consequences for the American defense industry will be quite. »
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