Five scenarios how the war of Israel and Iran can turn out
15. June 2025 at 18:24
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The nuclear program may not be weaned.
Tehran, BRATISLAVA. In the course of three days he hit Israel in the territory Iran Six military bases, secured complex for military commanders, nuclear facilities, as well as residential houses in the center of Tehran.
The attack on Iran, whose leadership calls for the destruction of Israel, paralyzed the Iranian military command and at least slowed the nuclear program.
Iran claims that 128 people have died in the attacks in the last three days and about 900 were injured.
Iranian retaliatory attacks also hit the center of Tel Aviv and south of it destroyed several residential buildings with at least thirteen victims and dozens of injured.
The greatest escalation in the relationship of Israel and Iran and the biggest attack on the government in Tehran at least since the end of the Iraqo-Iranian War in 1988 has been concerned whether the collision of two countries will not grow within a broader regional conflict.
Israel claims that the attacks on Iran will continue days to weeks. The game is therefore a greater escalation, the involvement of foreign powers, but also the possibility that the attacks will fundamentally weaken the Iranian regime.
Analyst: Iran is no longer in the gray zone, the nuclear bomb wanted as soon as possible Read
« We know from history that the complete consequences of the Israeli attack on Iran will unfold for years. It can prevent the development of an Iranian atomic bomb or, on the contrary, to speed it up. It can either destabilize or consolidate it even more, » writes Karim Sadjadpour, Iran from Carnegie Foundation for International Peace.
What are the possible scenarios of further development?
In the article you can read:
- Why Iran is in a regional conflict in a disadvantageous position.
- Whether the United States is involved in the interventions against Iran.
- Why the Iranian mode can paradoxically strengthen.
- Why does Iran need to stop the nuclear program.
- How can the situation be de -escalated.
1. Regional War
Israeli attacks on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory attacks may, according to some experts, grow into a broader regional war on Middle East.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbás Arakči said on Sunday that Iran does not want the conflict with Israel to spread to neighboring countries, unless Iran is forced to do so.
Israeli attack on gas fields near Qatar He described the border as « Aggression and a very dangerous act », which is aimed to expand the conflict to the Gulf area.
However, Iran is in a disadvantageous position, according to experts. This is due to a series of errors that led to a scenario that Iran has tried to avoid for a long time: to an open war with Israel without the help of its wildcards, notes the Wall Street Journal.
Lebanonský Hezbollah it is paralyzed after last year’s Israeli attack, terrorist Hamas movement It is employed by the critical situation in the occupied Gaza and the high number of civilian victims and smaller proiran groups in Iraq may not have enough ability to attack Israel.
Iran enriches but has not yet approached a functional nuclear weapon Read
In addition, Israel was also trying to remove the command of the goose in Yemen on Sunday, who fired ballistic missiles several times to Israel. However, the mission according to New York Times daily was not successful.
Saudi Arabia or United Arab Emirates Although the Israeli attacks have been condemned, they may be more of a pragmatic position, even in connection with the US convergence.
However, the reaction of weakened Iran may be different. In the past, Tehran threatened, for example, by blocking the Hortmian Strait, which would de facto stop the only naval route to the Gulf of Persian. About a quarter of the world’s oil exports pass through this point.
2. Regional War with West Involvement
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