Five consequences of the condemnation of Le Pen

The conviction of Marin Le Pen for the abuse of EU public funds is an event that will have consequences far beyond French domestic policy. Here are the initial 5 effects of this judgment:

1. Le Pen’s verdict to assign EU funds causes shock in the French and European political landscape. The decision, which deprives her of the elections for five years, will deprive her of participating in the presidential race in 2027. It has deep consequences not only for the French political dynamics, but also for the wider battle of the narratives surrounding democracy in the West.
2. In France, the sentence risks dangerously enhancing the long -standing allegations of her national gathering (RN) of court biases and political persecution. In the 2024 parliamentary elections, the tactical vote of other parties prevented RN from securing the position of Prime Minister, although he won as many as 37% of the votes of the second round. The decision only deepens the effect of the party’s argument that the system is set against them. This can stimulate their base and strengthen their support as 2027 approaches.
3. Jordan Bardela, the young and charismatic president of the party, is ready to take the position of Le Pen for the 2027 election. However, it remains uncertain whether he can effectively fill the gap left by its exclusion from the race, as the party has long been built around its personal trademark. Although Bardela strives to make RN more attractive to the business elite and moderate conservatives, he also embraced elements from the more radical base of the party. His recent contact with the American right, his participation in the CPAC conference and the nuanced position on NATO suggest a strategic change that sets him apart from Le Pen. Despite its increasing popularity – 60% of RN voters already prefer it to Le Pen – this growing independence can create tension in the party, as it is unlikely to lend to political life completely.
4. Outside France, the decision plays a direct role in the growing transatlantic debate on democracy and political legitimacy. In the United States, where Jay D. Vance and Donald Trump have repeatedly branded « democracy through the judges », this sentence will probably be shaped as another evidence of European exaggeration and democratic decline. Just as US conservatives have condemned judicial intervention in the canceled elections in Romania, they are likely to benefit from the condemnation of Le Pen to claim that centrist elites in Europe use legal mechanisms to suppress the right opposition.
5. The broader European consequences of this decision should not be underestimated. Immediate impact can be a jump in support for movements against power across Europe.