First half in Mps, but the road that leads to Mediobanca is still very long

One to zero, but the game is still long and all to be played, the Remuntada still possible. Luigi Lovaglio Last Thursday he collected an important tactical victory in a game that, if he had lost, would have definitively erased his Project designed for the future of Monte dei Paschi di Sienabut give for resolved or even simply downhill the road that leads from Siena to the center of Milan, in that square Cuccia where it is based Mediobancaan unforgivable error would be for the manager born in Potenza.
Lovaglio won And he won with a result greater than all expectations: 74 percent of those entitled participated in the Assembly and the vote in favor of the capital increase (without disbursement cash by the shareholders) was equal to86.4 percent of those present, almost twenty percent more than necessary to make the project proceed. A full success, it was thought that they would decide the fractions of the pointwhich rewards the great work of Lovaglio from January 24, the day of the announcement, towards institutional investors.

Authorization process

At this point, the project awaits the completion of the authorization process which will follow the way to the actual exchange offer that could be launched, if Ivass, Antitrust, ECB and Consob They will not highlight impedimental reliefs, between the end of June and the early July.
The analysis of the vote shows that they voted in favor of the Lovaglio project not only the three most important shareholders, namely the Ministry of Economy and Finance (11.731 percent), Caltagirone (9.8) and Delfin (9.78), but also Banco Bpm (5), Soul Sgr (4), the Vanguard funds (3.5), Algebris (3), Pimco (1.5), Norges (1) and Amundi (1). Above all, Lovaglio won against the negative opinion of ISSone of the most listened proxies, to which the MPS CEO had replied in writing to the highlighted findings. The capital of MPS is extremely divided between a plurality of funds that have minimal shares, even of a few decimals and the result, also for this reason it takes on particular interest.

Different audience

But this game is already definitively closed and there will be no drama of results. Also because if you get to the exchange offer, this should be addressed to a different audience. If MPS’s shareholders who expressed themselves, Mediobanca’s shareholders who had to do it in the future. It is true that a share of members can be traced back to the two entities to the same protagonists (Caltagirone with 7.66 percent and Delfin with 19.81 percent above all), but common funds and institutional investors could review their judgment or simply vote differently.

Implications

There is no direct implication that brings those who voted in favor to deliver, tomorrow, the Mediobanca actions that holds in wallet to get MPS actions in exchange. Above all, because many financial institutions work for silos, with watertight sectors and this prevents all forecasts.
From an industrial point of viewin the Mediobanca house it is highlighted how the recent cut of reference rates by the European Central Bank can prospectically expose MPS to a reduction in the margin of interestwhich today is worth a predominant part of the group’s revenues, thus making the perspective less attractive. Lovaglio, for his part, instead highlighted, precisely during the Sienese Assembly that « the project is based on one Business combination built on a model of business solid and constantly evolving, which translates directly into value for shareholders « and that, » we are two business different but complementary. And just This diversity, by combining forces, can generate even more value and growth. Diversity is the true strength of the project». The shareholders will decide.

Quarterly

Meanwhile, after the tension for the Siena assembly, the attention of many focuses on Trieste, where the Generali Thursday will renew the Board of Directors, starting from a list presented by Mediobanca, which of Trieste is the major shareholder. Lovaglio, on the other hand, aims straight to May 8, when the Board of Directors of Mount will approve the accounts of the first quarter of 2025which will be disclosed the next day. Closed on 2024 with 1.951 billion euros of net profits and a dividend of 86 cents distributed from 21 May, Mount plans to appear in shape to make its union project stronger with Mediobanca. The results of this fraction of the year will influence directly on the exchange offer, even if Lovaglio has assured that there will be no changes compared to what has already been announced.