Fair condemnation or political persecution?
Aagitation has been a constant in the French political scenario. The center seems increasingly trapped between the left and right and Emmanuel Macron faces clear difficulties in creating consensus that allow it to govern with balance. The Raseblem National (RN) won the European elections and the first lap of the early legislatures in the summer of 2024, having been defeated by a comprehensive left -wing coalition on the second round.
Since then, the fragility of Macron’s EXAMBLE coalition, whose absolute majority has evaporated in the 2022 legislatures, it was evident: the President of the Republic has appointed three prime ministers in just over a year and, according to the polls, Marine Le Pen is the favorite to reach the Elisha Palace in 2027. Jordan Bardella, the young RN leader, is seen as his natural successor.
But this week’s events, beyond the legal-political meaning and the increase of tensions that will inevitably cause, can precipitate the entire internal process of the RN. Depending on the developments of the processes that reach various party members, where Le Pen includes, and the pace of French justice, the RN candidate for the 2027 presidentials could be Bardella, who, at the time of suffrage, will be only 32 years old.
The process
On Monday, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison-two house arrest and two of suspended sentence-five years of ineligibility for public positions and a fine of 100,000 euros. The sentence was submitted following an investigation into the improper use of European funds by the still Front National, renamed RN in 2018. In question is the channeling of funds – more than 4 million euros – available by the EU for the payment of party employees who performed their activity in Paris.
In addition to Marine Le Pen, 12 parliamentary assistants and eight deputies to the European Parliament were targeted in the process. The accusation does not deal with its own enrichment, but the use of funds for the party’s own benefit. «These contracts represent about 2.9 million euros (excluding Jean-Marie Le Pen contracts) (which was dismissed from the process for health reasons and died in January), corresponding to wages and social contributions paid to parliamentary assistants with fictitious contracts, allowing the European parliament to cover people who effectively worked for the front national National ‘, it can be read in the sentence of the Court of Paris, made available by the French newspaper Le Monde, which also ensures that the process is not limited to’ administrative errors’ or ‘misunderstanding by European deputies on confusing European rules’, which is even’ diversion of funds in a system created to relieve party financial charges’.
« In the context of a decision rendered on behalf of all the French people, this measure is effectively proportional to the constitutional level objectives of safeguarding public order and the good administration of justice, » concluded the judgment of the Paris Court.
Le Pen, in an interview with the French channel TF1, considered that he was the subject of a « political decision » and insists on innocence. His defense attorney Rodolphe Bosselut assured that he will appeal the decision he called a « blow to democracy. » Bardella said that « it was not just Marine Le Pen to be unfairly condemned: it was the French democracy to be executed. »
The RN leader in the French Assembly also received the support of political personalities on her side of barricade – from Moscow to Washington, passing through Rome and Budapest. On French soil, the leader of the center-right Republicans, Eric Ciotti, wondered, in his official account of social network X, whether « is France still a democracy? » On the other hand of the political spectrum, the conviction is different: La France Insoumese, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, said that « the facts that have been proven are particularly serious. »
Political impact
In a case of this nature, in which one of the targets is one of the favorites to assume the presidency of the Republic, naturally stands out the political aspect. The question now is whether the RN will come out galvanized or feel the negative impact of the wear and tear of judicial imbrogs like this?
Speaking to the sunrise, Jaime Nogueira Pinto believes that the newborn may be strengthened because the effect of a certain indignation can be given, which is normal to the abuse that actually represents this interference of the judicial power in politics. «If it is proved that there is even an intention to block Le Pen’s participation, I think it will generate outrage not only in the voters of the Rassamblement National but also in other people. Historical experience shows that these situations have perverse effects for those who trigger them. Still, it does not rule out the possibility of weakening if Le Pen is prevented from competing: «(RN) may be weakened as Marine Le Pen has a great popularity and expectations are high for the election. If (the RN) is forced to find a substitute, an alternative, which may be Bardella or niece, Marion Maréchal, may end up not reaching the same vote as Le Pen.
Another evidence that, for Jaime Nogueira Pinto, may suggest that this is a political decision by the judicial power is that the activities by which Marine Le Pen was convicted to be a ‘common practice’. « I consulted some people who know this article well and is a common practice of parties, it is even a common practice in Portugal. » « Parties usually name party members to their places in Parliament and then these members do full work for the party, » concludes Jaime Nogueira Pinto.
Main questions
What tools are available to Le Pen’s defense?
Marine Le Pen’s defense team can appeal to the Paris Court of Appeal, something she has done, and the Supreme Court.
Can Le Pen be in the 2027 voting report?
Yes, the end of Marine Le Pen’s political career is not yet confirmed. This is because the Paris Court of Appeal reported on Tuesday that it hopes to issue a decision until mid-2026. If it is unlawful, Le Pen could be a candidate for presidential elections scheduled for 2027.
On what basis can the Paris Court issue a conviction with immediate effect?
In the light of the French law, only in cases of recurrence prevention can the penalty be applied immediately. It is naturally doubted that there is a clear risk of recurrence by Le Pen, something that his defense mentioned in the trial, but the Court of Paris, in the excerpts published by Le Monde, justified the action as follows: “It should be recalled that the existence of ongoing mandates, as well as the claims of obtaining such mandates, are of nature to allow a risk of fraudulent use of public funds that individuals would be carried out, hold, grant or use within the scope of these terms, which only provisional execution can avoid.
