Export prices for cod and pollock are growing against the background of a healing reduction
The reduction in the volume of catch and supplies led to an increase in export prices for pollock and cod: in a month they added 14% and 24%, respectively. The situation can stabilize the situation, which reduces the benefits of deliveries abroad, as well as a potential decision to cancel some sanctions as part of negotiations between Russia and the United States to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Work on lifting sanctions will take time, but business expectations can begin to influence the market now.
In February 2025, the price of the Russian cod in the foreign market amounted to $ 7.2 per 1 kg, increasing by 24.1% per month and 65.9% a year to the year, follows from the FSUE « National Rybresurs ». This is the most pronounced dynamics among the above export species of white fish. So, the cost of polions amounted to $ 1.4 per 1 kg, adding 13.8% per month and 47.6% a year by the year. Piksha has risen in price 1% and 27.4%, respectively, to $ 3.16.
The growth of export prices can be traced against the background of a reduction in supplies. In January -February 2025, the volume of unloading of Russian fish products in foreign ports decreased by 5.3% year by the year, to 238.6 thousand tons, including due to the fall by 21.6% of the polish supplies and 47.3% cod, follows from the FSUE National Bresurs. In Russian ports, the total volume of shipments, according to analysts, lost 6% year by year, up to 317.1 thousand tons. The shipments of the polish decreased by 22%, cod – by 15.5%.
This is due to the fall of the catch. According to the All -Russian Association of Fisheries (Warpe), by March 17, Russian fishermen mined 81.5 thousand tons of cod and 11.6 thousand tons of Pikshi, for a year by the year, the indicators decreased by 4.8% and 21.6%, respectively. The catch of polions, according to the calculations of the Association of Plowers (Adm), by 21 March amounted to 870 thousand tons, having lost 6% a year by the year. Although President Varpe German Zverev believes that data for January -February does not reflect long -term trends.
The association of shipowners of the fishing fleet (ASRF) draw attention to the fact that the global proposal of cod has been reduced for several years under pressure from natural factors. Russia masters atlantic cod, along with Norway and this year its permissible catches were reduced by 25%, they notice in the organization.
Adm President Alexei Buglak says the catch of polions is lags behind last year due to bad weather and a large number of storm days in the Sea of Okhotsk. The expert notes that in January-February 2025, supplies of ice cream of policies were reduced due to the growth of production of deep processing, including fillets and Surimi. Prices for a polish, according to ASRF, are now also growing due to the effect of a low base: the cost is restored after a fall followed by the ban on the import of fish products from Russia to the United States in 2022 and restrictions from other countries. The indicators, according to the organization, have not yet recovered.
Inside the country, wholesale prices for the Pacific cod, according to the “National Resource”, have increased by 34.3% (up to 470 rubles per 1 kg) from the beginning of the year, by 6.5% (up to 570 rubles per 1 kg). The Managing Director of Dobroflot Group of Companies Alexander Efremov says that the price of fish raw materials for deep processing in Russia fully reflects its cost in the foreign market, and sometimes due to problems with logistics is higher. Although the expert considers the main factor in growth to the increase in the costs of polishing and cod manufacturers, and not a decrease in catching.
The fishing union also celebrates the correlation of domestic prices for polka and cod with export. But the organization notes that the cost of products for consumers has not yet changed significantly. From November 2024 to February 2025, a freshly frozen gutted torn pins in retail in the central part of Russia rose by 3.1%, to 235 rubles. for 1 kg. The cost of raw materials in this indicator, according to the fishing union, amounted to 58%in February.
Alexander Efremov does not exclude that in April-May the market awaits a seasonal decrease in the prices for a polish due to the peak of catch. The fishing union believes that the increase in cod prices will also slow down due to the effect of a high base and strengthening the ruble, which reduces the benefits of deliveries abroad. But in the future, the market can be affected by export relief.
On March 25, at a meeting of expert groups of Russia and the United States in Riyadh, an agreement was reached regarding the restoration of the access of Russian agricultural products to the world market. This also implies the lifting of sanctions from manufacturing companies and exporters of fish products, the cancellation of restrictions on servicing ships under the Russian flag, including fish trading. The ASRF draws attention to the fact that it will take time for the implementation of agreements, but the positive expectations of market participants can affect the conjuncture now.
