Experts: It is the worst scenario in the conflict between Iran and Israel

Although the Trump administration has denied any involvement in Israel’s air attack against Iran, which began the night of Friday this week, Iran has claimed that the United States is complained to the attacks.

If Iran decides on, or even happens, attack American goals in the region, the absolute worst future scenario can become a reality. This can lead to a strong escalation in the area around the Persian Gulf, according to the experts that DN has talked to.

Iran could have attacked, for example, US military bases in the yellow countries or camps that exist for special forces in Iraq. Knowing that attacks on US bases may be close to the United States called back some personnel from the region. At the same time, the United States has warned of consequences if attacks were to take place.

– The yellow -flies with American bases, such as Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, are at risk of being canceled, regardless of because there are Americans on the ground. All bases can be reached by Iranian, short -range ballistic missiles in a short time, says Alexander Atarodi.

At the same time The many incentives for Israel to involve the United States in the conflict, according to Lieutenant Colonel Anders Ekholm at the Swedish National Defense College.

– One way to bring the United States more quickly could be to further attack Iran’s ability to produce oil and natural gas, which will lead to praise. This, in turn, will affect the oil -consuming, US market – and then maybe President Donald Trump will be more prone to the war ending the war, he says.

Further disruptions in an already fragile world economy are part of the worst scenario that is identified. When the region around the Persian Gulf accounts for around one fifth of the world’s total energy and gas consumption, a larger war will have major consequences for the world’s markets, especially the economies in Asia, but also through surge waves in the West.

– It will lead to a set in the world economy, says Alexander Atarodi.

The best possible The outcome of the conflict is based on the fact that influential countries are entering, possibly members of the G7 group that meet in the days, and convince the United States for dees calming.

Several of the Yellow Fleaches, which have extensive agreements with the United States since the beginning of May, could take that role.

– If Trump can be convinced that escalation creates instability in the region, and even an increased oil price, he could in turn convince Israel to withdraw. Then the hope of continued conversations between Iran and the United States also increases about the Iranian nuclear weapons program when the situation calmed down, says Alexander Atarodi.

The most likely The outcome, on the other hand, is an intermediate between the best and worst scenario, he continues.

– The conflict is most likely to continue for a short time with escalation from both sides because no one wants to lose their face. At some point, de -skills will take place, but long -term regional consequences will continue to be wrestled as a new, security policy landscape. It is likely to have new alliances when you have clearly seen how Israel lacks inhibitions, now, in Gaza and earlier in Lebanon, says Alexander Atarodi.

What speaks to step down is that the intense, Israeli attacks against Iran fulfill a domestic political function for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

– It is a way for Netanyahu to draw attention from the devastation in Gaza and other issues and instead try to gather Israel behind his politics and push back the opposition. This means that we can instead go towards the worst scenario.