Experts: Concerns about Trump can give lowered mortgage rates
Uncertainty is great in the markets in the wake of Trump’s customs policy. For Swedish households, the development has led to the positive that there are lower mortgage rates in sight.
Over the past month, long market rates have dropped. They affect the bound mortgage rates. The two -year government bond has dropped from 2.18 percent to 1.85 percent and the ten -year -old from 2.56 to 2.28 percent in one month.
In the days it has been broken through many banks. On Tuesday, state SBAB -bound mortgages lowered with binding time between 1 and 10 years. On Monday, SEB lowered its list rates for one-, two- and three-year loans. Last week, Swedbank, Nordea and Danske Bank made similar reductions.
– This is exceptional position. Market interest rates are a swing with customs. It is very much about confidence, notes Claudia Wörmann, housing economist at the mortgage.
She thinks they bound Borrowing rates can fall more even if the uncertainty is great.
– You can probably think that this will continue. But it may happen that it goes up too, she says.
She is supported by Maria Landeborn, senior strategist at Danske Bank, who believes that it is concern about Trump’s customs policy that has pushed down the levels.
– It is partly reflected that it is expected that the Riksbank will have a lower policy rate in the future. But also that the expectations of the business cycle have been dampened as a result of the trade war, she says.
– Trump’s policy has had a significant impact on Swedish mortgage rates, Maria Landeborn continues.
However, Danske Bank believes in his Forecast that the market interest rate may rise.
– If the United States starts ashore with trade agreements with other countries and we get a more positive development, then long interest rates can come up again, says Maria Landeborn.
Claes Hemberg, independent economist, also believes that long market interest rates can fall more.
– But it is based on the fact that the customs do not get rid of, he says.
The moving mortgage rates can also go down, the experts say. They are affected by the Riksbank’s policy rate, which is 2.25 percent. Next week, May 8, will be the next interest rate announcement.
Previously have The signals from the Riksbank have been clear and many assessors have agreed: no more reductions this year. But Trump’s customs play has led to stock market cases, anxiety in the interest markets and warnings for poorer growth. Thus, the playing field has been completely reversed.
– I think they lower for preventive purposes, says Claudia Vörmann.
– The uncertainty can lead to us not daring to do anything. Then maybe you need to lower to get some kind of mobility started in the economy, she continues.
Claudia Vörmann believes the policy rate can be 1.75 percent at the end of the year against 2.25 today. As an example, Swedbank’s list rate for three months B0 loan is 4.24 percent. Should the banks come down with the policy rate down, it would mean a variable list of lists around 3.75 percent.
Claes Hemberg believes the policy rate is 1.5 percent at the end of 2024.
– I absolutely think that the Riksbank needs to lower the interest rate. Inflation is not the main question. Household confidence in the economy needs to be strengthened, he says.
Danske Bank does not expect a reduction next Thursday. But Maria Landeborn notes at the same time that the probability of a reduction has still increased. In their latest forecast, they believe that policy rate remains at 2.25 percent at the end of the year.
How, then, should a person who will take or change their loans think when the uncertainty is so great?
Claudia Vörmann means, given the uncertainty, you can take moving and see where it goes.
– Otherwise, I always say that if you feel worried then bind. But today I don’t.
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