Expert: unlikely with nuclear war between Pakistan and India
Struggles have been going on fully at the border between India and Pakistan since the Indian air attack on Tuesday night. The attack, against Pakistan and Pakistan controlled Jammu and Kashmir, is said to be a response to the terrorist act on April 22 when 26 people were killed in India -controlled Kashmir. India accuses Pakistan of involvement, which Pakistan denies.
UN Secretary -General António Guterres has announced that he is « very concerned » about the prevailing situation and world leaders call for restraint.
Pakistan and India have both nuclear weapons. They work daunting, Henrik Chetan Aspengren, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute, emphasizes. India’s doctrine is that you should not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Pakistan has not been as clear.
– The idea of deterrence is that you should not really know whether nuclear weapons should be used or not. The uncertainty plays a role, but that we would stand on the brink of a nuclear war I consider to be quite unlikely, says Henrik Chetan Aspengren.
A nuclear war With tactical weapons would mean a huge escalation and diplomatic crisis, according to Aspengren. India and Pakistan have also fought war in the past. Most recently during the Bargil conflict in 1999, the year after Pakistan tested its nuclear weapons for the first time.
– There was no talk of using nuclear weapons in that situation or there were no clear such threats anyway. It is possible to wage a conventional war with conventional combat forces, says Henrik Chetan Aspengren.
He points out that from the Indian side, you have been clear with what goals you have focused on: a way to show that it is a response to the terrorist attack on April 22.
– The rhetoric is rather that you can level out and not step up the conflict anymore.
For Pakistan is It is important to both deny involvement in the terrorist attack and to mark against India. An example is that the country has assumed that the Indian battle plan has been shot down. The country wants to show that it has achieved success military, according to Aspengren.
– It is also a signal that you may be able to find a balance, where you choose not to step up but rather emphasize what you have achieved.
