Expert: « Several sabotage gets greater effect »

Two collapsed bridges, an exploded military train, damage to a railway track and sabotage against a signal system – it has been an accident -hit day for the Russian railway.

Russia accuses Ukraine of attacks and terrorism, and of trying to sabotage the peace negotiations planned tomorrow in Istanbul, but there are no independent information that occupies what has happened.

According to his liwång, associate professor At the Swedish Defense College, it is likely that there is a sabotage behind some of the events, although it is difficult to completely establish which ones are behind it.

– It may be separatist groups that want to disturb or strengthen the peace process, but it is also clear that Ukraine has always wanted to strike the Russian logistical apparatus.

In the first case, where a road bridge in Brjansk collapsed and a civilian passenger train crashed into the masses, Russia accuses Ukraine to blast the bridge and caused the accident.

– Based on what we have seen so far, I think it is unlikely that Ukraine would hit passenger trains. Bridges or railway sabotage is in line with what has been seen before. It is difficult to say whether the train accident may have been caused by mistake, says Hans Liwång.

In war, however, the risk of clean accidents, because the safety margins become smaller.

On the other hand, he believes that other possible attacks, for example against a railway bridge in Kursk four hours later, where the bridge collapsed when the train was on it, may have been implemented to strengthen the impact.

– It has a greater effect and becomes more difficult to hide. There may be planned sabotage that is waiting for the right location to be implemented, and so you take care of other events. But so far it is difficult to safely say if this is Ukraine behind, you can also imagine that smaller separatist groups are doing so to have a bigger impact, says Hans Liwång.

The Ukrainian military intelligence service At the same time went out with information that a military freight train was exploded in the Zaporizjzja region that night, without taking on responsibility for the incident.

It can also be part of the information war.

– Ukraine may have a purpose in highlighting this as part of the propaganda, because it benefits Ukraine and when Russia itself does not talk about it. It makes it visible to the Ukrainian and Russian population, that does not mean that Ukraine is behind it, but they win that it becomes known, he says.

During the day, two more events related to the railway have become known. An alleged sabotage of a railway track in Brjansk that did not cause any accident, as well as an attack against a track signal system in Donetsk, on a new railway that the Russians built to the front. This sabotage has taken on a party group.

Russian scholar Johan NorbergAt the Total Defense Research Institute, FOI, there is signs of Ukrainian involvement in the Brokollepes in Russia, near the Ukrainian border.

– The fact that this happened within a day indicates that it is someone’s action and what indicates that it is still Ukraine is that this benefits them, it negatively affects Russian rail, he tells TT.

The geographical proximity to Ukraine he also says indicates Ukrainian involvement.

– That the train is on the bridge and then it melts, it means that you have to have eyes on the goal to see exactly when it happens, in the second. Then you can have a drone or a scouting soldier in the terrain, he says.