Expert sees « back door » in the customs conflict
Despite the impending escalation in the trade conflict between the EU and the United States, the expert in US trade policy Laura from Daniel’s chances still sees opportunities for a negotiation solution. « There are also certain back door in Trump’s customs announcements. There is still scope in it, both positive and negative, » said the political scientist from the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) in Berlin to the German Press Agency.
While on the general US tariffs that have already come into force, imports from all countries can hardly be shaken, there is still room for negotiation in the planned country-specific surcharges. These should take effect from April 9th. Trump had announced a customs rate of 20 percent for the EU.
It could get worse too
But it could also get worse, warns of Daniels. Trump could impose further tariffs to individual industries – for example on the pharmaceutical industry – or European companies not to export certain technologies to China. « This would break away another business area ».
Laura von Daniels still sees opportunities for a negotiating solution. Photo: SWP
Whether the EU reacts to Trump’s threats largely depends on Germany. As the largest economy in the Union with strong export orientation, the Federal Republic is particularly vulnerable. Other EU countries observed exactly whether Berlin was willing to bear economic costs in order to enable a uniform European line.
NATO membership as possible means of pressure
At the same time, the security policy dependence on the EU sets close limits for possible countermeasures, such as against US digital companies. « Trump links trade policy with security policy. He couples customs threats to demands for higher defense spending, » said Von Daniels. It is conceivable that he even uses NATO membership or US security guarantees for Europe as a means of pressure.
Trump rejects suspension of the tariffs – and reproachs EU again
How long and how uncompromising Trump continues his course will also depend on whether there will be broad protests in the United States – or its own electorate turns away. According to Daniels, the first model calculations showed that the tariffs could cause $ 3,000 to $ 5,000 for an average US budget annually. « Trump harms a large part of his own supporters. »
Customs up, musk out?
It is not excluded that Trump will soon demonstratively distance himself from his government advisor Elon Musk, according to the expert – as a symbolic act to appease displeasure in the base. Trump then signals: « I listen and draw consequences ». The President is already noticing that the mass layoffs and budget cuts promoted by Elon Musk are not well received by his own voter base and has increasingly distanced himself from Musk during his last appearances.
