« Expert RA » worsened the forecast of the profit of the banking sector

According to the results of the first quarter of 2025, banks have already felt a reduction in lending and trends will remain, experts say. In such conditions, the profit of the banking sector will not achieve last year and amount to 3.1-3.3 trillion rubles. At the same time, banks from the TOP-10 will be in the most comfortable position, their share in the total assets of the banking system can reach 81.5% against 77% a year earlier.

The expert RA rating agency revised its forecast for the profit of the banking sector in favor of a decrease. “According to the results of the first quarter of 2025, more significant cooling was observed in all lending segments than we expected a few months ago,” explained Ksenia Yakushkin, banking ratings of the expert RA. “In the first three months, the assets of the banking sector were reduced by 3.5%.” “We reviewed our forecast for the growth rate of loan portfolios in 2025, which, in turn, was reflected in our expectations on the profit of the sector: now it is estimated in the range of 3.1–3.3 trillion rubles. against the previous forecast (dated February 25. – « Kommersant ») at 3.4-3.6 trillion rubles. ”, – notes Mrs. Yakusheva.

At the same time, according to the results of the first quarter, a reduction in the profit of credit organizations is observed: the total financial result of the sector amounted to 750 billion rubles, which is 17% lower than a year earlier.

In 2024, the banking sector earned a record 3.8 trillion rubles. “A noticeable impact on the financial result of the sector in the first quarter was had a negative currency reassessment due to a noticeable strengthening of the ruble from the beginning of the year,” the managing director of the NKR Mikhail Doronkin. “Without taking into account this factor, the profit would be comparable with the first quarter of the last year. In the following months, we do not expect a similar influence of the specified factor on the market. We continue to adhere to the scenario of the profit by the profit at a level comparable to 2024. ” Three main factors will be affected by the profit of banks in 2025: a drop in retail lending, increasing reserves and costs for funding and reduction of margin due to competition for reliable borrowers, therefore, Denis Taradov, a partner of AKG Unicon, believes to reduce it to the level of about 3 trillion rubles.

The expert RA does not expect a significant mitigation of monetary policy-the potential for reducing the key rate, according to the agency, does not exceed 3 p., Which will become the main factor that limits the growth of loan portfolios, emphasizes there.

“Even if the Central Bank of the Russian Federation proceeds to soften the policy in the second half of this year, the“ credit renaissance ”(the transition from the savings to the consumer model of behavior), according to our assessment, should be expected no earlier than the second half of 2026,” the VTB said. In such conditions, they expect an expert of RA, a portfolio of large corporate loans will be able to show an increase in the range of 5% at the end of the year, in SMEs – plus 11%. The volume of consumer lending can be reduced by 10%, car loans fall by 5%, mortgages – show an increase of up to 3%.

At the same time, the agency believes that, as the M&A transactions are completed, the banking sector will continue to increase the concentration on the TOP-10, whose share can reach 81.5% by the end of the year against 77% at the beginning of 2023, while the share of fintech banks will still not exceed 1% in 2025 (see schedule). The competition in the sector this year in different segments will be determined primarily by the presence of capital in banks (See “Kommersant” from May 16) and the arrangement of priorities in its allocation. “After a series of large transactions, as well as reducing the business of Russian“ daughters ”of foreign banks over the past three years, the share of the TOP-10 has grown markedly to 80.7%, according to the Central Bank on February 1,” says Dmitry Grutkevich, manager for the analysis of the banking and financial markets of PSB. “Expert RA forecast at the level of 81.5% according to the results of 2025, it looks realistic.” According to Ilya Zharsky, managing partner of the Veta expert group, large banks will have noticeable advantages in the current situation, as they have sufficient capital and technological resources and they cope with the regulatory load more efficiently. “The subsidiaries of the marketplaces will continue to show an advanced growth of assets, but while their share remains insignificant-0.2% at the beginning of 2025, Mr. Gritskkevich indicates.“ Five to seven years later, they will probably be able to compete with large universal banks in the transaction segment, by means of individuals and the BNPL segment ”.

Ksenia Dementiev