Expert Council advises on an ambitious EU climate center for 2040

The European Union’s climate council continues to consider an ambitious climate target to be essential for 2040. In a new report, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change recommends reducing the emissions of climate -damaging greenhouse gases by 2040 compared to 1990 by 90 to 95 percent. The body based in Copenhagen had already made a similar recommendation in 2023.

The EU would keep the goal for 2040 on a credible path to the desired climate neutrality by 2050, the report now says. On the other hand, if the goal is too low, this would undermine the long -term competitiveness and energy security of the EU – and that in a time of geopolitical uncertainty, the experts warn.

Law proposal in July

So far, there is the set in the EU to reduce emissions by 55 percent by 2030 compared to the 1990 status. In an analysis of the countries’ climate projects, the EU Commission recently came to the conclusion that this goal was feasible. In addition to the goal until the end of the decade, the EU wants to become climate -neutral by 2050. A binding intermediate destination for 2040 is still missing.

The EU Commission led by President Ursula von der Leyen recommended in 2024 to reduce net emissions by at least 90 percent compared to 1990 by 2040. A proposal for a binding law is expected at the beginning of July. After that, the EU countries and the European Parliament are on the train to negotiate the proposal.

These negotiations are not easy. Some in the European Parliament and among the EU countries consider 90 percent to be ambitious. According to EU circles, the Commission wants to create more flexibility to achieve the requirement. This includes, for example, the recognition of climate certificates from non-EU countries, which is a prerequisite for supporting the 90 percent goal. The climate council, on the other hand, advises against international emission credits – rather, the decline through internal European measures must be achieved.