European climate goals 2030 on paper ‘feasible’. Now in the real world

The green ambitions of Brussels catch on. A « impressive sprint » has been drawn to fall back when it comes to the 2030 climate goals, the European Commission said this week after the assessment of national climate plans. It _{Goal for 2030, 55 percent less CO2-then emissions in 1990, with a forecast of 54 percent for the first time ‘in sight’.}

European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, responsible for climate, ‘Net Zero’ and Schone Growth, Wednesday in Brussels: « The world is in a geopolitical winter. But despite everything that is going on, we have the feeling that we have good news. » The energy transition in particular is well on the map: the EU is racing on a share of 42.5 percent renewable energy in 2030. For comparison: in 2023 the share of green energy was only 24 percent of European energy consumption.

But, Hoekstra adds: « The honesty says that the paper ambition still has to be matched by ambition in the real world. » Many plans lack specific objectives for a transition to clean technology.

The call to more ambition of the committee to the Member States at the end of 2023 is heard, but how realistic are the plans?

« The EU climate and energy objectives for 2030 are clearly feasible, but without effective national policy and credible financing- both of which are largely lacking in the updated plans- the implementation will fail, » says Giulia Nardi, climate policy expert at Can Europe (Climate Action Network). Nardi points to the process -based undermining of the green plans: « By putting the dialogue with climate organizations and citizens on a side track and not setting up clear accountability mechanisms, governments weaken the foundation of their climate obligations. »

One initiative after the other

A lot has been done in the last decade of European climate policy. The EU took the European in 2021 Climate law in which the goals were included for 2030 (under the ‘Fit for 55‘Package) as a run-up to intended climate neutrality in 2050. In particular, the Von der Leyen I Committee, in particular, had a high priority, with the’ Green Deal ‘(now replaced by the Clean Industrial Deal).

One initiative after the other came from the Brussels drawing table. Such as the Lulucf scheme for land use and afforestation. The Effort Sharing Regulation, in which the standard for reducing greenhouse gases was determined for each Member State. The Renewable Energy Guidelines, more efficient energy consumption and the CO₂-Moordonst standards for cars and vans.

« Almost a holistic climate policy framework, » says Antoine Oger, director of the Think Tank Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEP) in Brussels. « The green ambitions of the EU resisted the Corona Years and the war years in Ukraine. That is not a small achievement, » he emphasizes.

The amount of CO₂-Moet per euro has halved in the European economy in the last twenty years, Oger has been calculated. This is often due to better insulation, more efficient energy consumption and greener transport. But, he continues: « The low -hanging fruit has since been picked. The amount of progress and speed of progress will decrease in the coming years. It will be increasingly difficult to make greening. »

Oger points to sectors where much more needs to be made to make progress « than just switching off coal -fired power stations » – such as the so -called carbon removal in land use and forestry. A ‘no debit’ standard applies for this, in which the co₂emissions of land use and forestry are eliminated against a similar recording of CO₂ From the air through existing and planted trees and plants. Only nine EU countries think they achieve their goals in this area. There is a significant shortage of Europe: there is an ‘ambition gap’ from 100 to 140 percent, looking at the goal for 2030, the committee ruled.

« Problematic, we’re moving in the wrong direction, » says Oger. Simply planting more trees is not the answer to that. « If you lose a million hectare of Oerbos, you will not solve it with a million hectare of newly planted trees. It takes years before that effect. It is also about the entire ecosystem of forests with a varied biodiversity, healthy enough to absorb carbon. » That is the complexity. The loss of European forest is ‘limited’. The deforestation is mainly of a qualitative nature: « European forests lose their ability to absorb carbon. This has to do with natural disruptions and higher harvest percentages. »

‘Do not become complacent’

The assessment of ten-year-old National Energy and Climate Plans of the Member States (2021-2030)- and the « global lying on course »- is an important prelude to the legal energy and climate objectives for 2040. Last year, the committee indicated that it was a net emission reduction of 90 percent (compared to 1990). That aim is still not made hard, the political negotiations are about this sensitive.

The committee warned the EU – in the same breath with the positive results – to become « not complacent ». « The costs of doing nothing rise, » said Teresa Ribera, executive vice -president and European Commissioner for a clean, just and competitive transition. « Every climate disaster that we are not prepared for arrives harder. Higher economic costs, more social damage. »

And the political wind in Brussels has been played. In addition to the ‘ambition differences’ between sectors and member states, there is an overall more right -wing ‘climate’ for climate policy – in particular in the European Parliament and the European Council. Oger: « Especially now extra efforts are needed to tackle the sectors that are most problematic, there is the least political will to do this. »

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