European bags at the maximum of the year, in Italy spread at 100 and FTSE MIB at 40 thousand points: what should it be done now?

Just on May 14, some important financial indicators touched unexpected maximums. The index FTSE MIB of Piazza Affari surpassed 40 thousand points, an event that had not been attended since October 2007. At the same time, a few days after the promotion of the Italian debt by the S&P Agency, which had raised the tripla B rating to triple B+, the performance differential between the BTP and German bunds at 10 years of age, it went down to 100 points, also a result that brought us back to a more happy era, on September. 2021, when the former president of the ECB Mario Draghi ruled at Palazzo Chigi. Less than ten days after those events, something seems to creak in the « sentiment » – the mood – in this positive case of the markets. Let’s see what.

Share markets, end of running?

On Wednesday 21 May there was a reduction from the tops of all the world bags after the strong performances recorded by the minimums last month. « A dutiful reduction, a more than physiological traction that could open to a pause phase that could take a few weeks before manifesting itself in a bearish movement worthy of being defined as such », writes the XTB analyst in a report David Pascucci. The Nasdaq fell by almost a -2% from the maximum, S&Pi returns to the levels of Tuesday 13 May with a single day of negotiation, now the appeal is missing Europe which will be at the test of these maximums with potential sales starting from today’s morning. And today, May 22, the European price lists have highlighted a further drop, even if in Piazza Affari the 40,000 threshold continues to keep. In Asia, Nikkei did not further sank the blow after yesterday evening, therefore the rudder of the markets is today in the hands of the Dax which could decide the fate of the market. « If Europe gives in, we could also see further discounts in the USA with consequent negative weekly closings, » concludes Pascucci.

The effects of the declassing of the US debt

After all, after The declassing of the American public debt by Moody’swhich on May 19 revised his judgment on the credit risk of the United States, bringing him from AAA to AA, The performance of Treasury at 30 years of age has risen for the first time since April over 5%, while the 10 -year Treasury exceeded the return threshold of 4.51% (today we are 4.59% for the tenth anniversary and 5.09% for the thirtieth anniversary). An important signal of the fall of trust towards the US active ingredients after the rejection of Moody’s.

Usa inflation down in 2026

However, according to George Brown, senior economist for the United States of the British giant of the Asset Management Schroders, the Fed will pause its rates cutting policy throughout 2026. «US inflation should now remain at 3.1% in 2026 instead of descending to 2.7%. This is not due to the fact that we foresee that customs duties will lead to persistent inflationary pressures. Rather, it is because price increases will be gradual and not a short and violent shock, as the highest costs will affect the supply chains and consumers. For this reason, it will take some time before the basic effects are exhausted, with the IPC core that should not drop below 3% up to the fourth quarter of 2026 « . Schroders also lowered the GDP growth estimates for the USA in 2025 from 2.4% to 1.7% as a result of the confused and contradictory choices of the White House regarding the duties and the commercial war against the rest of the world.

Italy: Waiting for Moody’s rating

The consequences for Italy and Europe of this evolution of the real economy are not in favor of financial markets. Let’s not forget that according to ECB estimates the Eurozone GDP in the first half of 2025 should be limited to a growth of just 0.1%, while Germany, a locomotive of Europe, could remain at the pole from the point of view of the growth of GDP throughout 2025. It is therefore difficult to think about the continuation of a rally of the European bags and in Piazza Affari in such an uncertain context. While the fixed income could have a new flicker if the Moody’s agency, which is expressed on May 23, should follow the example of S&P and promote a « notch », a step, the rating of Italy « .