Europe and the next world order
Radical changes in US foreign policy by President Donald Trump have made many suspect that he wants to bring America closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the long run.
It is expected now that the United States, China and Russia will share the world with each other, as World War II winners have made the conference in Yalta in 1945. As Trump abandoned America’s 80-year engagement to preserve the international order based on rules and laws, the world is returning to the « right of the right. » Yet, since Trump views all diplomacy as a transaction, he abandons the main factor in multiplication of America’s power: her ability to create and lead alliances.
Of course, Trump’s approach does not necessarily mean that he will seek a particularly close relationship with Putin or deliver admiration from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Moreover, it should not be expected that Putin will ever trust the United States, even if they become friendly to Trump.
| Why would the leaders of authoritarian, dictatorial systems suddenly trust a country whose strategy could change from the ground up after the next election? |
What can Europe learn from China about geopolitical independence
The better description of the situation is that Trump has turned to Russia, but that it turns its back to Europe. He just wants to end the war in Ukraine, and ideally, with the whole transatlantic partnership. As a project that grants equal rights to all its Member States, the European Union is contrary to its understanding of the world.
- According to Trump, the war in Ukraine and the duties of America to European allies are expensive obstacles to the national grandeur of his country.
- He believes that the United States can dominate the world solely if they give up rules, norms and international commitments.
- The subsequent competition between the Great Powers does not necessarily have to rise to the level of military conflict, but it will certainly include a similar war for technological, economic and financial supremacy.
Such a change in the US strategy has deep consequences for Europe. America’s withdrawal leaves a vacuum in the power of the continent, which is already bruised by the raw winds of geopolitical competition. Trump believes that when he abandoned Europe, he has unloaded America, but the Russians and Chinese know better what happens. They are too impatient to take advantage of the collapse of the Transatlantic Union.
In the end, Trump, SI and Putin will try to divide Europe, though for their own reasons.
It is paradoxical that at a time when the global center of gravity has shifted from the Euro -Atlantic to the Indo -Pacific region, Europe still becomes central again – or at least very important – a point of world politics.
| Europe may not yet have much geopolitical power without the United States, but that does not mean that its Member States and institutions are doomed to be small fish floating in a shark sea. Europe’s technological, economic and military potential is significant; The success or failure of Europeans to realize it will determine the future world order. |
For Europe
So far, the need for EU unanimity has made it ineffective and too slow in its actions because of the significant differences between its Member States. Therefore, the first task is to develop a new structure for cooperation:
- The recently announced « Coalition of those wishing » in support of Ukraine is The first important step towards the release of dependence from the USS
- It is remarkable that This initiative includes EU countries and is led by France and the United Kingdom, not by the EU.
- Since France and the UK (each of which is a nuclear force) continue to lead the initiative, the group should create Temporary Security Council to work to create a European defense unionincluding Germany, Poland and Italy.
- In addition to resolving membership issues, This advice may clarify the Coalition’s relations with the EU and NATOto determine the contribution of members to conventional and nuclear deterrence and to coordinate military support for Ukraine.
But these changes will not be enough for Europe to survive on its own. Europe must also find new sources of economic power.
In addition to reducing bureaucracy and creating attractive conditions for companies, Europe needs stronger incentives to promote innovation and research and development. If it cannot mobilize resources to attract the best researchers and the most innovative companies in the world, it will not achieve the dynamics it needs.
Finally, Europe has to work with its southern neighbors. On the contrary, if he withdraws from international cooperation to focus his resources on tanks and grenades, this will only nourish the geopolitical competition with only one winner that Europe is trying to avoid.
Mertz realizes that the successful German « turn to Europe » requires a strong and dynamic German economy.
But Germany can also help Europe with a strong voice in support of dialogue and diplomacy, even until a new defense is beginning. Military force and openness to commitment are both sides of the coin to strengthen peace. The future of European peace and prosperity is now entirely in the hands of Europeans.
© Project Syndicate
Sigmar Gabriel, a former Foreign Minister of Foreign Affairs and Germany, is the chairman of Atlantik-Brücke. Peter Ethel is the senior director of the Consultations on Geopolitical Risks at FTI Consulting in Germany.
The accents in the text are on Dnevnik.
The « Analysis » section presents different perspectives, it is not necessarily the expressed opinions that they coincide with the editorial position of Dnevnik.
