EU, Ukraine-small books in a big game
The hot war in Ukriana began in April 2014, when the separatists in Donetsk conquered the Slovian city, which was then subjected to an Ukrainian siege. The war can end, at more than ten years, with a Russian-American understanding of defending Slavianka-at the end of the world, at the Far East, in front of the economic and demographic siege of China.
The dispute between the United States and Ukraine, as well as the one with the allies, took the form of a televised boxing match and all eyes sit on Europe. There is a risk that we can no longer see the forest forest-that is, the only dispute that has remained a constant throughout the last American administrations, that between China and the United States.
Donald Trump's first term at the White House began with measures to restrain China's technical-economic development. There was also a tariff war, and then a « armistice » called « first phase », by which China committed to buy additional $ 50 billion in US. It was at the beginning of 2020. No evolution was recorded. The first Trump administration has restricted China's access to high -performance chips. The position towards China was the only one kept by the future Biden administration, which further strengthened commercial restrictions. Now, with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, we can speak of the accentuation of this dispute and reaching an open commercial war than about any « second » of the « armistice ».
Donald Trump's first speech in front of Congress in this second term coincided with a speech on the state of the nation held by Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang, at the opening of the People's National Congress. « If the US insists on the tariff war, on the commercial war or on any type of war, China will fight to the end, » said a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, summarizing the position at Congress.
Given this conflict between the first two powers of the world (with a lot of buzzing in the waters of the South China, around the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, but with an intensity that makes them pass under the radar of the international press), the analyst Edward Luttwak He tells us what is the reason for the humiliation of Volodimir Zelenski at the White House, as well as the reason for the heated dispute between the US and the allies in Europe.
« It is about making Russia more malleable to achieve a cessation of fire and to start negotiations based on a territorial compromise, following the neutralization of China. Trump is trying a strategy in the mirror with that of Nixon: instead of courting China to oppose the USSR, as Kissinger and Nixon did in 1972, Trump is trying to separate Moscow from Beijing. «
Today's Russia is a shadow towards the USSR in the 1970s, writes Luttwak, noting that there are areas where Putin's Russia is essential for China – especially in the aeronautical, spatial. But the most important thing is that Russia is a huge territory that is between China and the West (both Europe and North America). « Russia plays for China the same role that the Pacific Ocean plays for the United States. »
And Joe Biden, and Donald Trump knew that Vladimir Putin's Russia has a problem as big as the NATO expansion – the territorial integrity of the extreme East Russian. Unlike Biden, Trump can negotiate with Putin, because he did not insult Russia, as Biden did. Vladivostok officials were worried about China's intrusion to Siberia before the Ukraine war; Against the background of the Russian war effort and the de facto alliance with China in second violin position, these intrusions have aggravated. East Siberia is larger than the EU as an area, almost twice as large as India, almost as much as Australia, has a population of only 8 million inhabitants. The closest Chinese city, Harbin, has only over 10 million inhabitants, and neighboring Chinese provinces have almost 60 million inhabitants. In 2023, Russia's Chinese allies gave a directive for changing the name of the name Vladivostok in Haishenwai, a pre-Russian name. The biggest territorial losses of the Chinese empire were those in favor of Russia, in the middle of the 19th century. As it did not forget the humiliations in front of the west, China does not forget those produced by Russia.
Now China puts pressure on Russia to accept the construction of a Chinese port in Slavianka, near Vladivostok, where the borders of the Russian Federation, Korea and China meet and where China has no exit, the border reaching up to 20 km. of coast. It is about the same strategy of restricting China as applied, on a much larger scale, from the US after World War II, through the three chains of islands (first: from Kuri, Japan, to Taiwan and northern Philippines; the second: through Guam, to Papua New Guinea; For China, this quotation of access to the ocean is a challenge and vulnerability similar to NATO expansion for Russia.
The books Trump plays in extensive negotiations with Russia are about the Far East Russian and China. From the point of view of the great American strategy, Europe and Ukraine are less important, as long as Russia was broken from the de facto alliance with Beijing. It sounds cynical, but in terms of political realism, the waves of Chinese products and cars invading Europe and the world are at least as serious in the game of great powers as the dead in Ukraine.
The most important thing for the West is that Russia is not so dependent on China, writes Luttwak. « Maybe Europe does not see this, because he put his head in the sand, but Trump realized he had an opportunity, that Putin is looking for a favorable end in Ukraine and that it can break it to Beijing. It may seem like a too ambitious strategy, but Zelenski's television humiliation is an indication that Trump has Nixon's intentions, ”writes Luttwak.
It is a poker game between the great powers, to impose a new world order. In Europe and in the US liberal circles, analysts and politicians are alarmed by the erosion of democracy, by the fact that President Zelenski remains without weapons for the illusory defeat of Russia, the future of gender, sexual minorities, the future of environmental policies, ecological disaster, etc. All this speech shows that Europe has no good books to play, as well as Ukraine. « Well paid journalists and other personalities do foam in Europe against Trump, but they seem to be able to think about shock. They never asked the question that hundreds of millions of dollars disappeared in Ukraine. Donald knows this and will raise this problem at meetings with Zelenski. As the hypocritical press criticizes the statements of the Trump administration about free expression, so forget to mention the corruption of Ukrainian leaders, ”writes Panagiotis Theodoracopulos, for Takimag.
Trump's America has books and wants to attract Vladimir Putin. His strategy can be identical to the one used in the Gaza war, where he tried to attract Arab leaders, writes Takimag. How? He said the US wants to take over Gaza and turn it into a Monaco Levantin. Immediately, Egypt, Jordan and the rich golf monarchies put the money on the table and came up with a plan to turn the ruins of Gaza at their expense. In the case of Russia, Donald Trump humiliates Volodimir Zelenski in front of the whole world and leaves the European allies with his plans to withdraw the American security umbrella. In Moscow, Vladimir Putin smiles when he sees that military aid for Ukraine is stopped, that the US plans to reduce the sanctions imposed on Russia. And Moscow points out that he is waiting for the big meeting Putin-Trump. This means that the US president managed to attract the Russian counterpart at the poker table.
On February 28, when Zelenski was humiliated at Washington, Reuters It quoted four anonymous sources that showed that the government of Israel is lobbying to the White House for the US to maintain the Russian military bases in Syria. The sources showed that the Netanyahu government is worried about the extension of the influence of Turkey (which supported the group – a kind of Qaeda in the costume – which drove the Assad regime). Benjamin Netanyahu is afraid that Syria and abandoned Russian military bases could become Haas base. On the other hand, Russia also has reason to limit the extension of Turkey's influence, which was in the opposing camp in the conflict won in Nagorno-Karabah, in the Civil War of Libya and, now, in Syria.
Israel knows where the wind blows and does whatever is needed to make sure that its interests are supported by the most important players. Reuters sources show that the Netanyahu government sees a major player in this transition period in a new international order in Russia.
« I am afraid that everything that Europeans can offer, with the exception of Poles and Hungarians, is ignoring reality. It may be little to laugh now. Meanwhile, the progressive press rediscovered on Trump as an object of hatred and invective. And they do not think that Trump is trying to break the alliance between China and Russia, ”writes Takimag.
