Estonia’s economy again declined: GDP in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.3%
According to the Department of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2025, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Estonia decreased by 0.3%compared to the same period last year. In the first quarter of GDP, it amounted to 9.3 billion euros at the current prices, BNS writes.
“Although the economy has already shown growth in the fourth quarter of last year, a slight decrease has again been recorded in the last quarter,” said Robert Muyursepp, head of the national accounts of the statistics department.
According to an express assessment, published a month ago and based on the model, a small growth was expected, but it underestimated the one-time effects of the fourth quarter. Then, before entering into force of the new autonalogue, an abnormally high surge in car sales occurred. The model could not take a significant reduction in these sales in the first quarter of this year. The price pressure is also stated, which, with a faster increase in release in current prices, restrains real indicators, ”Muyursepp explained.
Of all types of economic activity, half had a positive influence on the economy, the other half – negative. The most positive contribution made the sector of information and communication, where the value added increased by 13.3%. It was followed by transactions with real estate (growth of 3.7%), healthcare and social services (5.6%) as well as professional, scientific and technical activities (5.2%). Among the largest sectors, value added in the manufacturing industry also increased – by 1.6%.
The economy was most significantly inhibited by energy (-22.4%) and transport (–10.3%).
Agriculture (–17.8%), trade (–3.3%) and the financial sector, the value of which decreased by 1.6%also had a negative impact.
The value added in the first quarter as a whole decreased by 0.2%. The value added is obtained by subtracting from the turnover of enterprises (“output” in national accounts) production costs. The increase in value added in the public sector accelerated a bit, but in the business sector it has declined. In the non -profit sector, the value added decreased for the first time from the first quarter of 2023 – by 0.1%.
Along with the value added, net-nago for products began to decrease. “Due to the modest receipt of turnover tax, net taxes on products, taking into account price factors, decreased by 0.9%. The last time the tax contribution to GDP was negative in mid -2023, ”said Muyursepp.
Private consumption decreased by 0.6%. The costs of accommodation and meals were especially noticeable. The costs of other goods and services, transport, clothes and shoes, food and housing costs also decreased. Growth showed mainly expenses for insurance and financial services. Compared to last year, households were also more spent on informational and telecommunication services, housing and healthcare.
Like the value added, the final consumption of the public sector grew faster than before – by 1.7%. This is higher than in any of the quarters of 2024. The final consumption of the non -profit sector decreased by 1%.
Compared to the previous period, investments were reduced by only 0.1%. The most positive impact was influenced by the investments of the public sector in machines and equipment, as well as the main defense assets – growth was 102.5%. In general, investments of the public sector grew by 20.6%. Significant growth was also shown by the investments of the financial sector – by 66.8%.
At the same time, investments of non -financial enterprises and households decreased. The most negative impact was influenced by the investments of enterprises in machines and equipment (–6.6%) and household investments in residential real estate (–12.4%).
Despite the decline in value added, foreign trade continued to grow. Export increased by 5.4%, import – by 5.8%. In general, as in the previous quarter, the net export remained negative. At the same time, the ongoing growth of foreign trade led to an increase in its share in GDP – to the highest level over the past two years.
The growth of foreign trade ensured the export of goods (8.6%) and their imports (7%). Especially the trade in raw oil and natural gas, non -monotary gold and other vehicles was released. The import of electricity had a negative impact. The modest growth in the export of services (0.7%) was provided primarily by IT services and data processing. The increase in the import of services (3.1%) was also due to IT services and other business services. The import of construction services and railway transportation had a negative impact.
According to data adjusted by seasons and by the number of business days, GDP decreased by 0.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 and grew by 0.1% compared to the first quarter of last year.
On August 15, data from national accounts for 2021–2024 will be published.
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