Economy will grow again in 2025 – Diepresse.com

The past few weeks have not brought good news for the domestic economy. No matter which organization was created by economic forecasts, Austria cuts extremely badly. In mid-May, the EU Commission said that Austria would be the only EU country this year. According to the IMF’s forecast, Austria will even be the only industrial country worldwide a few days earlier, whose economy is shrinking again this year. Because WIFO and IHS also explained in spring that the country would remain the third year in a row in the recession this year.

In this respect, the figures published by the National Bank on Friday morning are balm on the domestic soul. Loud Oenb Although economic development in Austria remains tense in 2025. However, « the valley sole of the recession has already been reached at the beginning of the year, » said OENB chief economist Birgit Niessner when the numbers presented. And this means that the National Bank economists are ready for an end to the recession this year. « We can tell you today that we are expecting a delicate plus in economic growth, » says OENB-GOUVERNENER Robert Holzmann.

Stabilization just above the stagnation

Specifically, the economy should grow by 0.2 percent again this year. So it is a stabilization just above stagnation. Nevertheless, it is psychologically a factor that could not be underestimated that the shrinkage phase could end if the National Bank’s figures really come true. According to OENB economy, Klaus Vondra has been examined that the better figures from industry and export are not a straw fire, for example in the form of advanced effects from the USA due to the tariffs.

The growth in 2026 and 2027 is to really take up speed for which an increase of 0.9 and 1.1 percent is assumed. So that Austria would be roughly at the level of the so -called potential growth, according to Vondra. However, even with this growth, Austria is slowly making the declines of recent years well. The current recession was unusually long with a period of ten quarters. And the recovery will also take more than twelve quarters, according to the forecast. The previous one GDP-Höchststand from the third quarter of 2022 will only be discontinued in spring 2028. In total, this results in an economically lost half decade.

The OENB also points out that its forecast is « under the impression of considerable uncertainties ». So it is not clear how the customs dispute with the USA develops. « If the US tariffs rise in summer, GDP growth could be weaker by a total of one percentage point, » it says. This means the cumulative period from 2025 to 2027. For this year it would bring an economic weakening of 0.2 percent. This would be exactly to zero domestic growth. And the government’s consolidation measures, which have to be even greater due to the high deficit, could also have an additional negative effect on the economic development.

Deficit and inflation remain high

According to the OENB forecast, the budget deficit remains clearly above the Maastricht destination of three percent by the end of 2027. In 2026, it should be slightly back to 3.8 percent of GDP, but deteriorate again the following year, unless new consolidation measures are set. And in any case, these are necessary. « We need additional measures to achieve the goal of a deficit of three percent on 2028, » said Niessner.

Inflation also remains well above that at three percent this year ECB-Siel of two percent. However, it should weaken itself to 1.8 percent next year, but increased to 2.1 percent the following year. The OENB economist worries the high core and above all wage inflation. « The damage to the reduced competitiveness is prepared, » said Niessner. It does not want to comment on the current wage rounds, but for future inflation waves, the Benya formula should be adapted, for example, that instead of the VPI, the GDPE Deflator, which reacts less to external price shocks, is used.