Economists saw signs of recession in industrial production

The discussion by analysts of industrial production results in the first quarter looks disappointing. “Stagnation is observed in industry. The release after an increase at the end of 2024 in January was sharply adjusted to the middle of last year and stabilized, ”concludes experts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and short -term forecasting (TsMAKP). Small fluctuations in the first quarter of 2025, in their opinion, are mainly associated with relatively normal February and unusually warm January and March, which led to slightly lower issues of release in these months.

If we consider the dynamics of production without sectors with the dominant presence of the military -industrial complex, “we can talk about the transition to a recession”, and record analysts of the center. The release of civilian products in the first quarter decreased by an average of 0.8% per month (including in March – by 1.1% of the previous month, the seasonality was eliminated) and reached the lowest values ​​from April 2023 (see schedule). If in March 2025, in annual terms, according to Rosstat, industry showed an increase in production by 0.8%, then in industries without sectors with the dominant presence of OPC, the decrease in output was 1.6%.

Raiffeisenbank analysts comment on the data on industrial production more restrained, noting the general deterioration of his dynamics so far. Their interest is that the dynamics of the machine -building complex in March dived down (minus 5.5% month to a month), which is rare. “Directly in March there was not a single industry in the sector that showed positive dynamics for a month for a month, the production of finished metal products fell the most strongly. Nevertheless, we believe that such a drawdown is most likely a temporary phenomenon and growth in engineering will continue against the background of budget expenditures, ”they record. However, the assessments of the Central Department Store indicate that the third month in a row in the production of electrical equipment occurs in civil engineering (on average per month – minus 5.4%, including minus 3.2% in March) and the fourth month in the production of machines and equipment (minus 3.8% per month and minus 2.7% in March). In the production of vehicles after four months of decrease (minus 5.2% on average per month) in March, a small increase (plus 2.4%), “the continuation of which, however, is unlikely,” the analysts of the center believe.

“The modest dynamics of most of the industry … indicates the cooling of the economy and the implementation of the“ soft landing ”script this year. Such trends will allow the Central Bank to be more confident when making a decision on the beginning of mitigation of monetary policy, ”Raiffeisenbank analysts believe.

Artem Chugunov