Economists record signs of economic growth of the Russian Federation
According to the results of five months of 2025, analysts record the stabilization of the intra -state dynamics of the growth of the Russian economy against the background of the absence of signs of a close recession. According to the new assessment of the RAS Inp, GDP of the Russian Federation this year can increase by 2.1%.
Analysts at the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Inp RAS) in their new review record the growth of the Russian economy in April relative to March at 0.5% (taking into account seasonal and calendar factors, see schedule). It should be noted that earlier the Ministry of Economy, applying its own approach to the removal of calendar and seasonal statistical effects, estimated the increase in GDP in April twice as high – at 1%.
In the RAS Inp, they talk about the resumption of economic growth (with the eliminated seasonality) in April « after the reduction of the estimated monthly value of GDP during January – March 2025. »
This, however, did not stop the analysts of the Institute’s analysts to worsen their prediction of indicator growth in 2025 by 0.4 percentage points – up to 2.1% (which is also associated with the recent change in the Rosstat of GDP for the first quarter).
The center of macroeconomic analysis and short -term forecasting (TsMAKP) notes that « high -frequency data on economic dynamics in April indicate that the Russian economy arose at least temporary signs of improving the situation. » However, this improvement is local. On the production side, it was provided by the oil industry and retail trade, on the side of demand – consumer activity.
From positive In the Central Department Store, the preservation of real disposable incomes, stabilization of consumer expenses, stopping the decline in civilian industry, and the sustainable finding of annual inflation in the level of 10%are recorded in April. TO negative The factors of analysts attributed to the fact that the “revival” in the civilian industry is still recorded only in the oil industry, the offer of investment goods as a whole is reduced, and in the financial sector there is a credit compression (especially in the consumer lending market). Against the background of the presence of signs of both deterioration and improvement of the situation in the economy, the measurement of the TSMAKP Index of the probability of entering the Russian economy into a recession is far from critical values.
The leading indicator of the Bank of Russia – monitoring of financial flows – shows that in May their incoming volume decreased by the average level of the first quarter by 1.8% (after growth by 3.5% in April).
Excluding the production, the production of oil products and the public administration sector, the receipt fell by 0.9% (plus 4.4% in April) in all enlarged groups of industries. “An assessment of economic activity in May can“ make noise ”a large number of weekends and holidays, which varies greatly from year to year, making it difficult to smooth out data for this month. More accurate conclusions can be drawn based on the results of the analysis of June payments, ”the Bank of Russia said.
