EBRD revised the economic forecast for 2025: growth in Serbia will remain stable, American customs will hit European economies – economics

In relation to the previous forecast from September last year, EBRD did not change its projection for Serbia and expects that economic growth this year will amount to four percent. He expects to be so much in 2026. Years.

When it comes to economic growth for the entire Western Balkans, it will be 3.6 percent to 0.1 percent of the previous prior forecast from September 2024. Years.

« The growth in the Western Balkans are expected to remain stable at 3.6 percent and in 2025 and in 2026 years. Years. Reducing the forecast for this year is a consequence of lower external demand and minor inflows from domestic public investment, with a limited offer in the labor market, « the EBRD report said.

This bank expects Albania to increase 3.7 percent this year, Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.8 percent, Montenegro 2.9 percent, and North Macedonia three percent.

The EBRD has revised the forecast in all regions

Namely, according to the overall forecast of the EBRD, which refers to all countries in which this bank invests, economic growth of 3.2 percent is expected, which is declining in relation to the previous forecast for 0.3 percentage points.

This audit stimulates primarily from the weaker external demand in Central Europe, the Baltic States and the countries of Southeast Europe. It is also the result of the current impact of conflicts and slow pace of reforms in the region of the South and Eastern Mediterranean.

The Bank expects Croatia in 2025. year to grow from three percent, Czech from 1.9 percent, Estonia 1.7 percent, Hungary, two percent, Poland 3.4 percent, and Slovenia two percent.

The EBRD indicates the consequences of US Customs

The EBRD indicates that American customs will be much influenced by individual European economies, adding to affect the growth of uncertainty among investors.

« The very increased uncertainty is enough to discourage investment, weaken production and disrupt global supply chain, » said the report.

It is pointed out that the SCENARIO in which the United States raises customs on all imports for an additional 10 percentage points could shortly reduce GDP in EBRD regions by 0.1-0.2 percent.

While Jordan, Slovakia, Hungary and Lithuania are the most vulnerable to such measures due to their total trade exposure to the US market, report shows that Bulgaria, Slovenia and Romania are mostly announced by the announcement of American customs to steel and aluminum.