Duties, from the notebooks for school to Christmas gifts: empty shelves alert in the USA without an agreement with China

In Athens, during the euro crisis in 2015, the intransigence of the government against Brussels began to falter when the first empty spaces appeared on the supermarket shelves. Some Greek distributors struggled to import certain products due to doubts among suppliers as for the coin with which they would have been paid. And the United States of course do not resemble Greece, in nothing. But the political damage for the government inflicted by images of empty shelves in supermarkets could be equally heavy. Also for Donald Trump.

The interview

This is a problem that the president, for the moment, does not recognize. He himself told in an interview with « Time » to have received eight days ago at the White House the Presidents-CEO of the three major American groups of large retailers in the country: Ted Decker of Home Depot, Doug McMillon of Walmart and Brian Cornell of Target. « I will tell you what they think – said Trump to » Time « , speaking of the duties imposed on 185 countries and in particular against China -. Those managing directors think that what I am doing is exactly the right thing ».

The rates

Other reconstructions filtered in the last few days tell instead a different version of the same encounter to the White House. The Manager of large retailers would have presented a list of products to Trump who would risk missing from the American shelves since Juneif Washington and Beijing do not quickly arrive at a relaxation after the retaliation of the last few weeks. Today American duties are 145% on all Chinese imports, Except for an exemption on consumer electronics torn from Apple and other technological groups they produce in the People’s Republic. Chinese duties on American products have instead risen to 125%instead. So the first and second economy in the world are close to a mutual embargo and now they should find a way out.

Exemptions

Based on the previous one for digital products, LAnd large supermarket chains are insisting on their exemptions on certain categories of « made in china ». The topics are not lacking. One of the fears is that, without clarity shortly between Washington and Beijing, orders will not start to the Chinese factories for the products of the American school return set between the beginning of August and the beginning of September; And without a commercial respite by the beginning of summer, the commercial supply chain of the year -end holidays would also remain paralyzed, from toys to decorations.
Above all, a stall in the negotiations and the persistence of the embargo risks mechanically causing a recession in America. Not for an objective state of crisis, but for chain layoffs that would trigger in the supply chains involved. Torsten Slok, Capoeconomista of the 750 billion New York Fund under management Apollo Global Management, estimates that the heart attack in the trade of goods between China and the United States began in the first week of April and should be felt in the United States Between half and late May: at that point the products that should have arrived in American ports after 20-40 days of navigation and which were expected for distribution in the cities in the last decade of May will be missing. The losses of seats in rubber transport and in the retail trade would be immediate and heavy.

The risk

Yesterday Scott Beesent, the Treasury Secretary, did not appear completely convinced in excluding such a risk. « We don’t fear immediately to see empty shelves » He said, knowing that today the products started from the Chinese ports are still coming before the « Liberation Day » (April 2) which started the spiral of the duties. « I think the situation is not sustainable by Chinese, so they could decide to call me ». Last year the commercial surplus on the United States generated 1.84% of the gross product of the People’s Republic, according to an estimate based on Beijing customs data. America was worth 14.6% of Chinese exports in 2024, while the European continent 20%. And always last year the United States derive 13% of all their imports from China.

Negotiations

In this stall, however, there are those who carry out. The Asian-commerce giant Shein (of Singapore) in these days is increasing the price lists of its products up to 377%, widespread in low-income families in the United States: It is the reaction at the end of the customs exemptions for small postal purchases and triples the price of domestic hygiene products, for cooking or make-up.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration tries to carry on the negotiations with the other countries affected by the « mutual » duties and then left in the limbo of a suspension with withdrawals at 10% until the end of June. Visibility on the interviews with the European Union, Japan or South Korea remains low, probably because the substance is scarce for now. However, it seems certain that from Washington is wondering yesterday’s allies to reduce exchanges with China, if they want to get on the counterpart to a favorable agreement with the United States. For many it is a very difficult claim to manage. Waiting, perhaps, that America itself began its relaxation with Beijing by widening exemptions to duties on always new categories of products.