Doubts in their electorate complicate to add the debate about the rearme | Spain
He debate about warthat tension all parties, is especially thorny to add. Because? The numbers show their most divided potential electorate. Among their own followers are positions that squeak with those adopted by their main leaders. The voters who declare themselves closer to add together have the ideas about rearmament less clear than those of Podemos, their rival in the space of the Alternative left and with which he shares – with nuances – the rejection of the increase in military spending.
Wet on security, defense, weapons and war does not come out for free. It is an intricate debate in geopolitics that reserves all contradictions. But the data of the last barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) mark a higher price to add. More than half of the supporters of the Government’s minor partner, contrary to uploading military spending, advocate increasing EU’s defensive capacity. A leader of one of the formations that make up adding admits that there is « a problem of difficult short -term solution. » « There is a displacement of common sense, including the progressive, towards rearme, » admits this adding member, who believes that the formation « has taken » to define its position by discrepancies among its members, which gives resolved.
Each party has adopted a position. The PSOE, with Pedro Sánchez in front, ensures that 2% of GDP approach in defense It is key to defending democracy in the EU, which will be done without diminishing the welfare state and that will mean an industrial advance. The Socialists have not convinced to add their partner in the Executive, who rejects the increase and links it to social cuts. Some possible allies are also opposed, as we can, even more noisy in their refusal – calls Sánchez « Lord of War » – and that Press tirelessly to adda conglomerate in which there is Parties with different sensibilitiesas more Madrid, Sumar and IU movement. In the conservative field, the PP supports the idea of the increase, but Alberto Núñez Feijóo Avoid unity image at all costs With the PSOE. Vox is shown in favor of the climb, but linking it to a threat of Morocco.
All the debate on military spending, which is about to see If you will vote in Congressis framed in a public opinion scenario with chiaroscuros. Although The Eurobarometer shows Spain as a country little concerned about defense compared to the EU setthe impression is different when changing the way of asking. This is demonstrated by the last CIS barometer. Made between February 28 –Day Trump and JD Vance abroaded Volodimir Zelenski After the US approach to Russia – and on March 7, the survey includes the following question: « Do you consider the EU to increase its defense capacity at the present time? » Here he does not probe about several concerns, but wonders directly. The result is encouraging for those who defend rearma: 75% in favor, 19.2% against.
Add up to Podemos
That support is not homogeneous. Adding is the state formation that faces a more difficult panorama, with 52.3% of its voters defending more defense and 43.4% in the opposite position. But there is more small print, and it is not flattering to add. The above data show the division between those who voted for the coalition led by Yolanda Díaz in the 2023 generals. That is, with Podemos within the ballots. Currently, that space is broken. Before the same question, the closest now to add – a category built with the intention of voting plus sympathy by political force – are more divided than those closest to Podemos. Among the former, 57.5% are in favor of increasing the defense capacity of the EU, a position that hits the one sustained to add. Among the seconds, those of the Ione Belarra party, only 32.9%.
The underside of the same currency is observed when analyzing, instead of support, the rejection of increasing defense: 64% in Podemos, 38.4% in adding. That is, the harmony between the speech of the leaders and the dominant feeling among their potential voters is greater in the purple formation than in adding.
The differences reappear when asking about the concern about the « Russia invasion to Ukraine”, Presented by the rearma supporters as one of its main reasons. If those who are“ very ”or“ quite ”worried in the field of adding 78%, in Podemos the percentage drops to 55%.
The adding plan
The country asked to add if there is concern about the division in its electorate on this subject and what strategy will continue. In written response, a spokesman at the same time of the summar group and the Sumar Movement party reaffirmed that « the plan to rearm (Ursula) von der Leyen » does not guarantee security, so the bet is to « guarantee social investment », « expand the notion of security » and coordinate defensive spending throughout the EU. « We will do it with debate, dialogue and agreement within the government. That is what the progressive space asks, » he adds.
Add has taken to find his speech not because of « communication failures » or lack of « ideas » – there are no profiles with vast geopolitical knowledge, including Agustín Santos Maraver, former ambassador of Spain before the UN -, but for internal discrepancies, says a leader of one of the formations. In his opinion, once the position is found, in which he believes that IU’s vision predominates, it is time to give him « credibility » so that « they do not cariculate us as naive that do not know how the world works. » « We must work thinking at the middle-long term, to be there when it is evident that all this discourse of the European rearme is suicidal, also for popular and social democrats, because it imposes the framework of fear that the most reactionary forces seek, » he adds.
« Horrible letters »
« The party that has it more difficult is to add. His only advantage is that there are no elections nearby and has time, » explains Daniela S. Valencia, political analyst and director of the vibrant agency. In his opinion, the connection problem of adding with his electorate potential in such a sensitive issue can weaken the training in the process of recomposition of the alternative left. However, he adds, this weakness is « compensated » by what he considers a « victory » by Yolanda Díaz: The agreement between the PSOE and add so that the SMI perceptors do not tax at the IRPF.
Santiago Martínez Vares, a specialist in electoral campaigns and director of Rebellious Words, sees « involved in a sandwich between the PSOE and Podemos. » « His letters are horrible. First, because he has internal discrepancies; then, because his electorate is divided; and finally, because he competes with a PSOE that ends up occupying a lot of space with his indefinite speech and with a Podemos that presses on the left, » he says. Although the PSOE electorate has a lower percentage of supporters of the rearme than that of the PP, does not see in trouble the socialists. « The great parties of the center cast (in reference to the PP and the PSOE) have won the battle of the story. The majority knows that the defense must be reinforced, although from the left they persist attitudes that deny it, a position that probably has some superficial, nozzle, » he says.
