Don't you like it? Negotiate alone with Russia and success!

The Trump administration wants to leave Europe and focus on China, and Germany has to take responsibility for its own security, says Professor John J. Mearsheimer, in an interview for Der Spiegel. « During the unipolar period, from the collapse of the USSR to the first Trump administration, I was considered a dinosaur. It was said that my realistic ideas are outdated, that they are relevant only for the 18th century and can no longer be applied. Now, it seems that realism comes back, ”says Mearsheimer.

Mearsheimer: « Article 5 of the NATO treaty does not say that the US will use military force axiomatically to save an allied country. Almost everyone thinks the US will intervene. During the Cold War it was essential to believe that. Western Germany was a NATO border state and had no nuclear weapons. The Germans were very worried that the US would not use the nuclear weapon to defend them in need. Therefore, the United States has talked about Article 5 so that it is understood that they will use nuclear weapons as needed. In fact, Henry Kissinger and Robert McNamara said, after they were no longer US secretaries, that they would not have used nuclear weapons to defend Germany. They didn't say that for as long as they were in office.

Der Spiegel: Do you think the US will not defend Estonia or Finland now?

Mearsheimer: I think now the US can defend the Baltic states if they are attacked. But this commitment is increasingly eroded. I am not sure that over five years will remain an important guarantee in Article 5.

Europe will not be able to become a great power. Europe created the impression that it is a nation state as long as it did what the Americans wanted. But it's a mirage.

President Trump and Vice President Vance do not concern Europe with respect. At the beginning of the first term, in 2017, Trump had two main foreign policy goals. One was to give up involvement in the relationship with China and to adopt a Chinese policy. The second was to fundamentally change the relationship with Russia, especially with President Vladimir Putin. He managed to change the policy towards China, but he failed to change the politics of Russia. In fact, he continued the policy towards Ukraine and Russia followed by his predecessors. In the second term, Trump will do what he failed in the first term.

Der Spiegel: Do you think Europe is a great power?

Although we often talk about Europe as a single country, Europe is, in fact, a constellation of states. Some European leaders have dreamed that they will have the United States of Europe. It was not the case, and now it seems that the American pacifier is leaving Europe. The centrifugal forces that exist in Europe will begin to manifest. The development of Europe was possible due to the presence of the US, which provided the necessary security. It was a fundamental mistake for the EU to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. NATO had to win that prize.

The cause of this war was the expansion of NATO, not the supposed imperialism of Putin. Then, Putin cannot conquer all Ukraine, no other countries in Eastern Europe and can certainly not conquer Western Europe

Europe will not be able to become a great power. EU states have common interests, but also divergent interests. When Europeans operate in a world dominated by the US, they do what Americans want and then it is created that Europe is a nation. But it's a mirage.

Der Spiegel: Donald Trump would be upset if Germany would do what Friedrich Merz said-to achieve independence from the US?

Mearsheimer: Trump would be very happy. Trump wants states like Germany to take responsibility for his own defense. His position is as follows: I will try to reach a understanding with Putin to put an end to the Ukraine war. If the Europeans and Ukrainians do not like them, we will leave; And it remains for you, Europeans, to reach an agreement with the Russians alone. Success! It is clear that the Trump administration wants divorce. And I think Germany's new chancellor is good at.

Ukraine must keep Soviet nuclear weapons and that it should not be admitted to NATO in any way. If the Ukrainians had followed my advice, now Ukraine would have been intact.

Der Spiegel: The pilgrimages of European leaders in Washington still have any use or are they for nothing?

Mearsheimer: The divorce will take some time. Europeans want to see in front of what Trump thinks about the EU, about the relationship with Russia and the end of the Ukraine war. But I think every European leader knows that Trump can no longer be back from the road to repair this relationship.

Der Spiegel: Can Trump may keep American troops in Europe, as he did in 2016?

Mearsheimer: I thought it was a possibility, but only until February 12. Then, Trump announced that he had discussed Putin by telephone, and the Pentagon secretary had a revealing speech in Brussels. And two days later, JD Vance held the famous speech in Munich. From that moment it has become clear that Trump has a radical policy in Europe. Everything was carefully prepared, was designed to humiliate Europeans and put them in their place. I'm sure Vance played a major role here. He always wanted to finish the war in Ukraine and reduce American presence in Europe.

When we talk about Putin, we have to ask ourselves two questions. What are his intentions? What are the capabilities? As for intentions, we have no evidence that he is an imperialist who wants to conquer all Ukraine and Europe

Der Spiegel: Do you think Germany should have nuclear weapon?

Mearsheimer: This depends on how Germany perceives Russian threat. The Germans have been self-defeated-erroneously, I add-that the Russian army will enter Europe. Under these conditions, Germany is likely to obtain the nuclear weapon. But, if you look at facts and logic, if you think of cold and see what the capabilities of Russia are, then you will come to the conclusion that there is no Russian threat to Germany. Therefore, Germany would not need nuclear weapons, in the short and medium term.

Der Spiegel: Does it make sense to create a nuclear shadow with the British and the French?

Mearsheimer: If you were Germany and you feel like you need nuclear discouragement, would you like to depend on French and English? Not. I would get my own nuclear weapons. Not because I would like to use them offensively, but because I am the last resort of discouragement.

Mearsheimer:When we talk about Putin, we have to ask ourselves two questions. What are his intentions? What are the capabilities? As for the intentions, we do not have any proof that he is an imperialist who wants to conquer all Ukraine, to create great Russia, in order not to talk about the conquest of other territories in Eastern Europe.

Der Spiegel: Yes, but he attacked Kiev, Bucea, in 2022. Now he bombers targets in Lvov, 60 km from the border with Poland. Isn't it a threat?

Mearsheimer: Yes. But the cause of this war was the expansion of NATO, not the supposed imperialism of Putin. Then, Putin cannot conquer all Ukraine, no other countries in Eastern Europe and can certainly not conquer Western Europe. His army was tormented for three years to occupy the eastern fifth of Ukraine.

Der Spiegel: If most of the Ukrainians want to adhere to the EU and NATO, what does it give you the right to say they are not allowed to do this?

Mearsheimer: I understand the Ukrainians. But Russia is a great power and has said clearly that they will rather destroy Ukraine before it adhere to NATO. I don't want Ukraine to be destroyed. This is what I said in 1990, when I stressed that Ukraine should keep Soviet nuclear weapons and that it should not be admitted to NATO in any way. If the Ukrainians had followed my advice, now Ukraine would have been intact

Der Spiegel: Trump treats well, for the moment, the leaders of states that have recently been seen as rivals – Putin and Xi Jinping. Try these three people to divide the world into spheres of influence?

If the US will leave Europe and if the conflict in Ukraine will be regulated, the intensity of the US military competition and China will grow

Mearsheimer: This perspective applies to US-Russia relations. Trump has no problem for Russia to control a good piece of Ukraine. But in East Asia is another story. China is an equal competitor who wants to dominate East Asia. We are in a strong competition with China in terms of artificial intelligence, super-computers, and microchips for quantum computers. In recent years, the US has not paid much attention to China, because they were caught in Ukraine and the Middle East, supporting Israel in various wars. If the US comes out of Europe and if the conflict in Ukraine will be regulated, the intensity of the US military competition and China will grow.

Der Spiegel: How should Europe behave in this constellation?

Mearsheimer: European countries should – and will probably do this – to act according to their interest. Americans clearly said that Europe should not do certain things in relation to China. Most important: not to market sophisticated technologies. If the Americans withdraw from Europe, they will lose the influence of over the people in this sensitive area. A smart thing would be for Trump to tell Europeans that the US will keep military forces in Europe, if Europeans do not have such commercial relations with China. And in the Cold War I had a similar problem: the Germans wanted to do business with the Soviets. But then, America had much more influence, because we ensure Germany's security.

Mearsheimer: Trump wants to withdraw troops from Europe to pivot to Asia. And he wants the Russians to be on the side of America and not by China. By expanding NATO, Americans have done the stupidity of pushing Russia into China's arms. Trump is trying to bring the Russians to a neutral position or ideally by the US side.