» Don’t know the word capitulation  » ‘: as Donald Tusk escaped resignation and preparing for revenge

Just after completing the campaign from the presidential election, Poland immediately went to a new one.

Karol Navrotsky’s victory Significantly increases the chances of a rematch of right opposition. However, Prime Minister Donald Tusk is not going to seem.

VOVER Trust received by his governmentremoves the issues of early parliamentary elections and gives the current coalition until the fall of 2027.

Both the government and the opposition hope that time will work on them. For the Donald Tusk government, the pause obtained is an opportunity to work on mistakes and restore confidence in its government.

And for Pis and President Karol Navrotsky – to weaken the government with numerous vetos from the head of state, and at the same time – to agree on cooperation with the far -right party « Confederation ».

Therefore, our neighbors will only grow.

Tusk check

Will the opposition candidate in the presidential election in Poland lead to the resignation of the Government?

This issue was extremely relevant all week long, as soon as it became known that Karol Navrotsky would become the new President of Poland.

Immediately after the announcement of these results, the representatives of the Law and Justice (« PAS ») began to talk about the need for the resignation of Tusk and the replacement of the current government with a technical one.

In particular, according to the leader of « PAS » Yaroslav Kaczynski,

The defeat of the pro -government candidate has become a « red card for the government », after which « the government should go. »

« We offer such a decision – a technical government that will, like the President, is non -partisan … The head of this government should be chosen in negotiations with anyone who would be ready to support such a project, » Kachinsky added.

However, most Poles are not shared by this point of view. In particular, a survey SW reserch nOccasional that 52.1% of Poles oppose early elections, while only 28.9% for them. A little different data demonstrates survey from United Surveys – 44.8% of respondents support the early resignation of the Tusk government, 43.3% against – 43.3%

In such a situation, Donald Tusk’s prime minister simply had no choice – on Monday, June 2, he announced that he was making a vote of the government’s confidence to the Seimas.

Did the Tusk guarantee that the coalition would not fall apart and support its government?

Not a fact. Despite the fact that there are no legislative grounds to demand the resignation of the government, the defeat in the presidential election has caused a significant image blow to the coalition, and most importantly – significantly increased the tension between coalition parties.

The apogee of uncertainty was a survey that launched PSL among its parties – one of the coalition parties. Her leadership wanted to find out how the possible exit of PSL from the current coalition and joining the new, formed « PAS » and the far-right « Confederation », provided that the party leader Vladislav Kosiniak-Kaysh will be offered a prime minister.

It is worth noting that of all PSL coalition parties is the most ideologically close to the « PAS ». Therefore, it is often seen as the « weakest link ». However, the survey showed that 70% of party members oppose such a scenario, after which the question of whether the Tusk Voice Government will survive, was actually removed.

So it happened. June 11th 243 Polish MPs spoke for the vote of the Tusk Government – That is, all 242 coalition members and the only non -factional deputy Adam Homola.

This is a very positive result for a coalition, which may indicate that the internal crisis has been overcome. And this in turn means that the current government has every chance to work for two and a half years – until the next parliamentary elections, which must be held in the fall of 2027.

The last chance to prevent the revenge « POS »

« I know the taste of victory and bitterness of defeat, but I do not know the word » surrender  » – it cannot be discussed, » Donald Tusk said on June 11 in June 11.

He also answered the proposal « PAS » to create a technical government, inviting them to become a « technical opposition ».

« The executive in Poland has its government. The results of the presidential elections do not in any way weaken our mandate. The election results do not change the principles of the political system. We have two and a half years of full mobilization in front, » the Prime Minister summarized.

However, a successful vote for the vote of trust does not mean that the coalition has solved all the problems. And most importantly – resumed the trust of her voters.

Sociological surveys of last weeks fix a very unpleasant situation – Despite the fact that Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition remains a favorite of the Poles’ sympathies (32.3% of voters are ready to cast votes), other parties that are part of the current coalition may not overcome the barrier.

And accordingly, in a situation where only three political forces will be held to the Seimas: political force Tusk, « PAS » (28.3%) and « Confederation » (20.7%), the coalition can be formed by the alliance of the last two parties.

Donald Tusk has just over two years to remedy the situation.

The first step along this path is the reformatting of the government, scheduled for July. By announcing « new faces » in the government, Tusk noted that the upgrade of the government would mean « not a change in names, but above all change the structure. »

Government restart is almost the last chance for the current coalition to compete for the opportunity to turn in the 2027 elections. However, at least two problems will interfere with this.

The first – which significantly influenced the work of the current government and has not gone anywhere, is the colorful coalition. This means that even agreed reforms can be blocked by separate coalition parties. As it was with the promised election of 2023 the decriminalization of abortions-it was impossible to make this promise through Demarsh Right Parties: PSL and Poland-2050.

However, another one was added to this problem. The victory in the next election depends on whether the support of parties that are coalition partners of the Civic Coalition will be restored.

And accordingly, Donald Tusk’s leadership style (as it is believed, Tusk Allies learn about the planned changes in the government not from the prime minister, but with the media), which overshadows other members of the government, needs correction.

It does not matter whether his party will intensify several more percentages, if these votes do not allow other coalition parties to the Seimas, and accordingly it opens the door to return to the power for « Pis ».

Speaking in the Seimas, Donald Tusk promises to continue his government. However, as the recent presidential election showed, for the electorate, which in 2023 voted for the current coalition is not enough.

Headquarters

« The Prime Minister should be prepared for being met with strong resistance to the Presidential Palace. During the six-month (election. – Ed.) I showed myself as a person who is not afraid of Donald Tusk,  » – said the newly elected President of Poland Karol Navrotsky.

Its inauguration should take place on August 6. Purely theoretically, a possible scenario that the Supreme Court, having considered complaints about possible falsifications, will cancel the current results, giving the start of the re -presidential election.

However, such a scenario looks too fantastic. Even if individual violations are proven, their scale will still be smaller than a gap between the participants of the second round.

Of course, proven facts about violations in favor of Navrotsky are able to weaken the mandate of the newly elected president, but no serious political analysis provides for the possibility of re -election.

During the election campaign, PAS, they were made it clear that they were not concerned about Navrotsky’s statements that contradict the party’s position. After all, as they were convinced, key positions in the administration of the new President will be occupied by the « PAS » policies, which will guarantee the « correct » course of the Head of State.

In this context, the first appointment in the Presidential Palace is important. That is – in the team of Navrotsky.

Currently, only one appointment is officially announced – Pavel Sheferknir will become the head of the presidential office. However, unofficial information has become much more important, published by the media that the presidential office should be the head of the Presidential Office Przemislav CzarnekMP from « PAS » and expert of the Ministry of National Education. Charnek himself now confirms or denies this information.

In the system « PAS » Czarnek is a political heavyweight. His candidacy, in particular, was seriously considered when choosing Yaroslav Kaczynski presidential candidate – and only at the last moment the choice stopped at Navrotsky (primarily because he is non -partisan and does not have to be associated with voters with the board « PAS »).

Therefore, his appointment for stationery, even on the Presidential Palace, looks like a decrease.

However, for Ukraine this purpose is important because

Charnek is one of the most anti -Ukrainian politicians « PAS ».

He was distinguished by anti -Ukrainian statements during the leadership of the Ministry of Education, and especially when he was in charge of the Lublin Voivodeship.

This will at least mean that the chairman of the presidential office will not mitigate a new presidential critical statement to Ukraine.

No less important: on the eve of the parliamentary elections in 2023, Czarnek was regarded as a potential contender for the post of premiere in the event of a coalition « PAS » and « Confederation ».

Therefore, it is possible that the position in the Presidential Palace is needed first of all to arrange a collaboration between « PAS » and « Confederation » under the auspices of the new president – both in the question of creating a coalition after the elections and in the torpedation of the current government.

After all, despite the vote, the trust of the Tusk, the « Pis » did not lose hope that his government would fall ahead of time.

Author: Yuri Panchenko,

Editor of « European Truth »