mai 10, 2025
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Dollar Escape: Is that the Star Hour of the euro

Dollar Escape: Is that the Star Hour of the euro


The euro has increased by more than 10% against the US dollar since January, reaching $ 1.14 per euro. Although the positions earned by the euro are largely due to the dollar escape Due to the protectionist policy to Donald Trumpthe power of the common European currency also reflects increasing confidence in the Eurozone economy.

How does the euro become a sure harbor

Currently, the euro area was recovering from a slight recession in 2023: last year, the 20 countries members of it achieved an average growth of 0.8%, and 2025 estimates pointed to 1.3%growth. But the emerging american duties on imports from European Union They may fail this perspective.
In anticipation of the European recovery against the background of the economic uncertainty in the United States Many foreign investors pass from dollar positions of European shares and bonds, which further enhances the value of the euro.

The power of the euro is also due to differences in monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) has repeatedly lowered interest rates in response to persistent inflation in some parts of the euro area, while the Fed retains higher interest rates for a longer time, which made investors prefer the single currency.

Still: large currency fluctuations of 10% in just a few months are relatively rare, and the euro is increasingly perceived as a counterbalance to the dollar in these restless geopolitical times when they are increasing that Trump’s duties could lead to US Economy to a recession.
“Trump undermines confidence in the rationality of American policy, in the long -term prospects for growth of USA And in the sustainability of their public finances, « Holger Schmiding, Berenberg Bank’s chief economist, said to the State Gazette. » As a result, the dollar loses some of its value, but the euro is not a real alternative, « the expert adds and pays attention to the Euro -Company to cause the world’s economy. ECB to respond with more interest rates. « 

According to Oxford Economics estimates, if Trump imposes 20% duties on EU exports, Eurozone growth can decrease by up to 0.3 percentage points this year and next. The forecast makes the assumption that Brussels will respond with purposeful counter -meters on American goods, not with full -scale response.

Germany’s incentives in the amount of EUR 1 trillion reinforce confidence

In Germany The large-scale package of defense, infrastructure and climate conservation, approved by the Bundestag earlier this month, includes significant fiscal stimuli of EUR 1 trillion over the next decade. This news has further strengthened investors’ confidence in the euro – as it is a sign of long -term economic support in the heart of the euro area, it contributes to strengthening the common currency.

Much of the German expenses will be funded through new bonds, which increases profitability and attracts foreign investors. Commerzbank, the second largest lender in Germany, predicts that in the next decade, the country’s debt ratio can increase up to 90% of gross domestic product (GDP), which will make the euro denominated assets more attractive.

« Additional public debt will make the German short-term bonds a little more liquid and hence more attractive, » says expert Holger Schmiding in this regard.

Last month, Goldman Sachs predicts that massive incentives will increase German GDP by a full -rate percentage point and stimulate the growth of the euro area with 0.2 percentage points. Two reasons for this are called the Bank’s chief economist Sven Yari Sten: Hope to greater growth in Germany to be transferred to neighboring countries as well as the expectation of the rest of the euro area to increase its military spending faster in response to the request given by Germany in this direction.

Given the ambitious military spending plans, Rebecca Christie, a senior research associate in Brussels Brain Trust, supports the idea of ​​issuing Eurobatics.

« Joint bonds are a strong tool that is worth using more actively. A subsequent program after a recovery plan will raise money and encourage the world to trade in euros, » the expert said.

Christie, who has also worked in the ECB, is referring to the package of incentives worth 750 billion euros, started after the pandemic, more than half of which was funded by joint bonds – an unprecedented EU move.

The issuance of Eurobatics is supported by the southern EU countries, while northern community member states, including Germany, are against.

The pros and cons of the stronger euro

This is a welcome relief for the euro area manufacturers who are still struggling with the rising energy because of The full -scale invasion of Russia in UkraineS Rebecca Christie believes that European airlines and military can also benefit from the cheaper prices of new dollars bought.
« At the same time, some European exporters may feel the effect of the appreciation of their goods for the rest of the world, » adds Bruegel. Germany is considered the most vulnerable of the strong euro, as last year exports represented about half of its GDP. The stronger currency is more expensive for German cars, machines and chemicals at a time when the largest European economy is fighting high energy prices, low world demand and strong competition by ChinaS

Although some currency traders predict that the euro may continue to strengthen against green money by the end of the year, most major investment banks predict that it will move around its current levels. « At the moment, everything is extremely uncertain and it is unclear whether the euro will continue to rise in price, » says Rebecca Christie of Bruegel Brain Trust.

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