Does the Bitcoin price follow a pattern? – Diepresse.com

Bitcoin has experienced better times than in the past few weeks when US President Donald Trump caused uncertainty with constantly new customs threats. But also worse. In 2022, when the outbreak of the Ukraine War, the exploding inflation and the abrupt interest rate increases, the stock markets had almost a fifth, the Bitcoin price slipped by two thirds. When Corona was afraid of the Corona in March 2020, the stock exchanges crashed by a third, Bitcoin rattled by more than half. Bitcoin seemed to understand the fluctuations in the stock market. After all, the price over the years has also increased much more, and has been truthful for ten years, and for five years.

Shares fluctuate more

The first months of the current year, usually a good phase for stocks, especially if it falls into the first year of a new US presidency, were difficult this year. Global and American stocks have had a minus since the beginning of the year. And Bitcoin? This cost as much as at the beginning of the year, although the price of its record high of $ 108,000 is still a bit away. But the times when Bitcoin was perceived as a particularly risky asset seem to be over.

But that’s not all: since the « Liberation Day » on April 2, when Trump caused an escalation in the trade conflict, the Bitcoin price has even increased. Bitcoin has decoupled at short notice, the investment experts from Bitwise, Jan Altmann and André Dragosch, state. Bitwise offers crypto investments such as ETFs (funds) and ETPs (securities). Bitcoin benefits from the return of the risk appetite of investors, which also shows itself in the strong tributaries in Bitcoin ETFs. The weak dollar also offers Bitcoin tailwind. In view of the increasing unemployment and falling inflation in the United States, the expectation will soon arise that the US Federal Reserve will carry out more interest reductions than currently assumed. That should also push the Bitcoin price.

Customs already praised

The bad news (recession, tariffs), on the other hand, should already be priced in, says Dragosch. In February and March, the mood for Bitcoin was at times as bad as in 2022 at the climax of the crisis around the bankruptcy of the FTX crypto tour. At that time, the Bitcoin price had temporarily fallen below $ 16,000, this time it had briefly slipped below the $ 75,000 mark. So there would be a good chance that it will go further up this year.

Shouldn’t the price rise alone because Bitcoin follows a four -year pattern and a record year is coming up again this year? At least there was a record high in 2017, 2017, 2021, in January 2025 there was also one. It is not yet clear what this pattern context, says Dragosch. So far, it was always that year that followed a Bitcoinhalving (shortage of the offer on new Bitcoin). There was a new record high 400 to 500 days later. However, the record years were always the first year of a US presidency, and there was also a connection with the economic cycles in the United States. The last halving was in April 2024 that the stock year started unusually weak, a lot of negative (bad economic data) had already been priced in, so that there is still little downward risk. If Bitcoin continues to follow its historical pattern, there should be a record high in the second or third quarter, and at the end of the year the price could then be $ 200,000. « This is a conservative scenario, » says Dragosch. If the USA starts buying Bitcoin on a large scale, the price could also increase significantly higher.

What is risky?

There was also a change in mood among asset managers in the United States. I have been part of the good style for years to discourage Bitcoin, the number of consultants who advise Bitcoin are growing. If only every fifth customer of a wealth manager in the United States has three percent of his assets in Bitcoin, the volume of Bitcoin ETFs should increase by 30 to 40 percent, says Altmann. However, it can be expected that there are significantly more. Because thanks to the more crypto -friendly policy of the new government, further products should be approved. And the US assets advisors prefer to rental to passively managed funds (ETFs) because they are not allowed to receive commissions from actively managed funds. It may soon be relieved for US citizens to include Bitcoin in their pension provision. In Europe, banks and asset managers are even more skeptical. An exception is Berlin of all people, where many start-ups are native.

Bitcoin is definitely no longer a risky asset like 2012, says Dragosch. It was always more volatile than the US exchanges, but this volatility already decreased significantly. Bitcoin does not have some risks for this: so there is no counterparty risk, and Bitcoin couldn’t go. Liquidity is also high, although not yet as high as with US state bonds. These are considered to be particularly safe, but there are also risks, such as that of hyperinflation or a threatening state bankruptcy. In such cases, Bitcoin would be good protection.