Do we have to be afraid of the nuclear disaster about India and Pakistan?

The shadows of the past

The conflict It has not started recently, but the colonialist legacy of the United Kingdom. Two years after the end of World War II, in August 1947, British India was divided into two separate areas, India and Pakistan. However, this was not a nice divorce, forcing about 15 million people to leave their homes and move. Muslims were pushed to today’s Pakistan, and from there the Hindu to today’s India, the two opposite sides of the so-called Radcliffe line (this is the artificial boundary by which the countries were divided at the time). About 1 million people were able to lose their lives during the process.

In India, Hindu is a majority and a significant Muslim minority, and in Pakistan, the opposite was the opposite. Since then, the two countries have beyond 3 formal and one -way warfare war and countless armed conflicts. THE Tension continuous between the two statesmainly because of the Jammu and Kashmir regions, most of the clashes were the latter. Some of Kasmir is directed by India, part of Pakistan, but both areas are hurt by the other country and this border area is one of the most armed boundaries on Earth, and smaller areas are under China’s authority.

Between the two countries broke out in 1965 a 17 -day warwhich was aimed at the occupation of Western Pakistan and claimed thousands of victims on both sides. Armored combat vehicles also played a major role in the clashes. Then, in 1967, a 13-day bloody clash broke out in which India attacked Northern Pakistan and launched its coasts under sea blockade. The next big clash happened in 1999, with thousands of soldiers died in the Kashmir Valley in three months. Between these clashes, the military tension between the two sides was continuous, most recently in 2019, an armed conflict.

Water as a weapon

Pakistan is lived by the waters of the Indus Valley, that is, the Indus and its tributaries. Each of these comes from India, which gives a truly cruel weapon to the neighbor’s hands. In 1960, with the help of the World Bank, the two countries signed the Indus Water Sharing Convention, which guaranteed Pakistan that the western branches of the Indus, which are responsible for 70-80 percent of the water discount, could flow freely throughout India.

However, above the Beas, Ravi, and Sutle cell, India has as much water out of the country, so much Pakistan gets. In principle, the convention was formed on behalf of « friendly cooperation » to serve the needs of both countries, but most people compare it to a post -a -bad deal agreement. However, this is needed, as it receives more than 90 percent of Pakistan’s water from these rivers, including drinking water and used for irrigation.

THE agreement excludesto have a water storage capacity of more than 4.4 square kilometers on any main branch of the Indus, such as the Baglihar dam lying on Chenabon, and India is doing so now.

May 4, in response to an increasing tension after the terror 450 km range He tested the ground-land rocket and violated the previous ceasefire and organized a multi-day military practice at the Kashmir border. In response to this, India responded within hours: he forbade any trading ship under Pakistan’s rule to shed 90%of the Baglihar Dam’s water and promised that no drop of water would pass to Pakistan through the country. He kicked the 6 decades of convention.

National Wet Power Plant Company that maintains the Baglihar Dam statedthat the sediment had to be removed from the riverbed, so it should be uploaded now, which is why the amount of water drained was restricted and In the future of very close This work will also have to be pronounced on the other dams. According to information, mechanics are already working on other dams, and they will soon be closely closed and Reuters According to its source

Dubious prospects

On April 30, Pakistan’s Information Minister announced that According to intelligence, within 24-36 hours They may be attacked by a military attack by India. Although the deadline has passed, the worst can still be left. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan Defense Minister, one day before the dam is closed, May 3 warned Indiato prevent water from crossing the border, as any barrier can be hit.

Although this rhetoric was repeated by Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, who said that the retention of the water resources at any level will be interpreted as a war act and will be fully given a military response. Press reports According to the Kashmir and Jammu border on Monday Pakistani soldiers, a For a conflict in 2019 Similarly, they opened fire again on Indian soldiers.

Over the past six years, the two countries have significantly increased their armament resources and think of both sides that they are in a better position, so the experts They fear that conflict could easily escalate. According to their analysis, drones, combat aircraft, rockets and armored vehicles will be able to star in the conflict.

However The possibility of countries’ nuclear weapons (roughly 170-170 charges) are also sown, estimated. They think it will not happen until a country « It will not be cornered. » By doing so, the two parties do not threaten to measure such blows. While in both countries Great uphill « , But neither of them wants a total war.

At the same time leaders show greater risk assumption on both sideswhich can easily push the conflict into a war spiral if there is no consensus on the exact steps and they are not properly worked out.

The equipment of the two armies, although they have undergone significant development lately, is nearly the same, but in a protracted war, India has the advantage, as his army has more than twice as large and has much more resources, spending $ 86 billion last year, making it 5th in the world rankings. Bloomberg according to.

Active military service in the two countries

All

• India – 1.5 million people
• Pakistan – 600,000 people

Army

• India – 1.2 million people
• Pakistan – 560,000

Air force

• India 149,900 people
• Pakistan 70,000 people

Navy

• India 75,500 people
• Pakistan is 30,000 people

Party guard

• India 13,400 people
• Pakistan is 0 people