Disagreement in coalition on defense spending: 700 million was released in the spring memorandum, but many billions are needed

It was only a short note, but two keywords in the less than seven lines of text were a harbinger for a new political thunderstorm above the already shaky cabinet.

Last week Reported Minister of Defense Ruben Brekelmans (VVD) to the Lower House The fact that he could not share a promised calculation of the financial consequences of new NATO requirements to the armed forces with the parliament-for this, ‘further coordination’ was required, Brekelmans wrote. Both the VVD minister and his officials at the Ministry of Defense had thought that a ‘technical’ analysis of what NATO asks could be made public, as a pass for a later political decision.

Other parties clearly thought differently. Within the coalition, it seems, there is no start of an agreement on how many billions can be released to strengthen the Dutch armed forces. In the Spring Memorandum that the government presented last week, the cabinet will only reserve 700 million euros in extra money for defense – completely insufficient.

At the end of June, NATO allies at the top in The Hague must agree on a new standard for the defense spending in the light of the growing Russian threat. One thing is clear: the current NATO standard of 2 percent of GDP will have to increase sharply. The US government has been talking about 5 percent for months.

NATO requirement

VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz recently suggested a-more realistic-percentage of 3.5 percent. But the latter proposal also has far -reaching consequences for the budget. Only since last year the Netherlands meets the NATO requirement of 2 percent; This year, the Defense spending will amount to 22 billion euros. For an increase to 3.5 percent, 16.5 billion extra in defense must therefore be set aside.

The percentage that Yesilgöz mentioned, insiders know, does not just fall out of the blue. Even before the NATO summit in The Hague, the allies must agree on the military capacities that every country must be able to put on the mat if war breaks out. Due to the growing threat, the Nato Capability Targets About 30 percent increased. Moreover, the Netherlands-like many other European countries-is still struggling with backlogs compared to the NATO requirements.

Due to European backlogs, NATO plans for the defense of Europe are falling and the risk of a new Russian military adventure is increasing. The European Commission has therefore proposed to temporarily stretch the EU budget rules for defense expenditure. The upcoming German government has already announced that she will let go of its own (even stricter) budget rules to arrange the neglected Bundeswehr as quickly as possible.

Within the cabinet, however, there is a fear that Northern countries will eventually have to pay for the budget deficits of southern countries; Prime Minister’s consent with the EU plans led to crisis consultation between the party leaders of the government parties last month.

The longer the cabinet postpones the decision on the defense expenditure, the longer it takes before the defense is in order.

However, the alternative to borrowing – cutbacks and expenses – is also not attractive, this week was shown by the plans for the Spring Memorandum. Although the cabinet negotiated more than 24 hours on adjusting the national budget, hardly a start was made on finding the many billions needed. VVD leader Yesilgöz tweeted afterwards that the defense budget will be reinforced by 1.1 billion, but once the documents had come out, it turned out that quite a sunny view of the figures.

In the outline agreement, the coalition agreed last summer to keep the defense spending on 2 percent of gross domestic product (BDP). Now that CPB figures show that the economy is growing faster than expected, the cabinet must put an additional 400 million in the defense budget in the coming year. The actual ‘intensification’ is therefore 737 million – an amount that will not be reached until 2030.

Military planners

The political impasse is in stark contrast to the consensus among military planners. In recent months, staff officers have worked overtime to work out the NATO requirements in concrete plans-especially with the army, which is the worst. Previously reported NRC over Extended proposals for extra combat vocal yaws To fill holes in the standing organization. In addition, the army commander Jan Swillens told last week NRCthere will also be Large mobilisable units must be formedwho can take care of the expected losses at the front.

Such a ‘scalable’ armed forces not only requires many tens of thousands of (part -time) soldiers, but also thousands of extra tanks, armored cars and other vehicles. With regard to the army, the (billions) contracts for this will be signed as quickly as possible-it will take about three to four years before the first equipment can be delivered. The longer the cabinet postponing the decision on the defense spending, in short, the longer it takes before the defense is in order.

In the meantime, it can be heard among top soldiers, Europe is in extra danger. For the coalition it is no reason to close the ranks. According to a political insider, the word ‘false will be sorry’ in the fraction rooms is used for the time being in a transferable sense: the willingness to drop the cabinet.

To share

Mail the editors