Diplomatic puzzle around President Zensky at NATO summit in The Hague

What do we do with VolodyMyr during the top? With only three weeks until the NATO meeting in The Hague, there is no solution for that precarious issue. Insiders say that the Ukrainian president Zensky has been invited, but what he can do in The Hague and what meetings he can attend is still not clear.

Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed to journalists on Wednesday that « Ukraine » was invited, but he did not mention the president. As a host country, the Netherlands has insisted on the arrival of Zensky, but Rutte is about the invitations and the choreography of the top.

The US, the most powerful ally, prefers to keep Zelensky at a distance as much as possible. The chemistry between Zensky and President Donald Trump is not very good. In addition, in American optics, too close contact between Zensky and Trump at a NATO meeting will make American mediation attempts between Ukraine and Russia more difficult.

Zensky must be able to leave with the head held high, diplomats say

The Hague Top will be a short affair – the less meeting time, the less the chance of painful confrontations. The government leaders will dine with the king and attend a meeting of the North Atlantic Council the next morning, the most important political body of the alliance. It is not more. Zensky is invited to dinner, but cannot participate in the meeting of the government leaders. Can you dismiss Zensky with a snack on the palace?

At other peaks there were also formal meetings with guests of friendly organizations or countries, such as the European Union and countries in Indo-Pacific such as Japan and South Korea. Something like that is not foreseen in The Hague. There is also no meeting of the NATO-Ukraine council, a formal cooperation body between KYIV and the alliance in which Zensky could participate.

What can Zensky then? At the headquarters this week, in the margin of a two -day meeting of Ministers of Defense, there was speculation about solutions. Could Zensky meetings of Ministers of Defense or Foreign Affairs, part of the top, address? Is a short meeting with Trump and Rutte an option? A meeting can be invested of the Coalition of the Willing, The group of European countries that is willing to station a guarantee force in Ukraine after a possible peace agreement? Or does it remain with a visit to a forum about Defense industry?

Whatever Rutte comes up with, said a diplomat, when Zensky comes, he must be able to leave with a lifted head and be able to take something home.

Maritime support package

On Wednesday, Ukraine was central to a meeting of Western countries that have been supplying the country since the start of the large -scale invasion of weapons. The deliberation, founded by the US, is nowadays led by Germany and the United Kingdom. The US Minister of Defense Pete Hegseeth was not at the meeting for the first time – although according to diplomats that should not be seen as proof of reduced US interest in Ukraine. Zensky spoke the ministers per video and, among other things, asked a minute of silence in memory of the children who were killed by Russian bombing.

Outgoing minister Ruben Brekelmans (Defense, VVD) stated very relaxed on arrival at the headquarters that the Dutch foreign policy applies: Business as Usual. « We have had a new political situation in the Netherlands since yesterday, but when it comes to international security, defense and our support for Ukraine, the position of the Dutch government does not change. » Brekelmans announced a new maritime support package for Ukraine worth four hundred million euros, consisting of around one hundred vessels and fifty drones.

Endless Bakkeleien

‘The Hague’ must be a short and efficient NATO meeting, to be completed with an ultra-short final statement. A short explanation prevents endless bakkeleien between the 32 allies. Previous statements often had dozens of paragraphs. The top in London in 2019, did it with nine paragraphs. The goal is now to stay under five or six paragraphs.

The most important paragraph must contain an increase in defense expenditure. If it is up to Rutte, those from 2 percent of GDP rise to 5 percent, of which 3.5 percent for military spending and 1.5 percent for preconditions such as infrastructure.

Brekelmans said that the Netherlands will strive to increase the expenditure and a unanimous NATO decision. He expects that there will be sufficient support in the Chamber if the outgoing cabinet presents a new NATO standard. Rutte has opened the debate about that standard, but not yet deposited a detailed proposal on which the countries should say yes or no. For example, it is not clear how fast countries should be at the new level – Rutte would prefer to see 2032.

Originally the intention was not to mention Russia in that statement – a hard description of Russia, the greatest enemy of NATO, could frustrate the negotiation process in Istanbul. That was wrong in many countries. It is, they said, not credible to more than double the expenditure for defense without mentioning where citizens have to take on that huge burden. NATO finds higher expenditure indispensable to be able to scare an ever -stronger Russia in the coming years.

According to diplomats, the chance that something about the future NATO membership of Ukraine will be in the final text is not great. It was previously stated that Ukraine is on an irreversible path towards membership. If there is no new text, the old statements apply. Nothing was never arranged about the time of accession of Kyiv. Russia demands that Ukraine will never become a member.

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