Dice, what happens after the judges’ stop in Trump? The suits of Milan disdains, the investments blocked. And the great chance for Europe

Some luxury hotels in Milan have noticed a change in the market of the most beautiful (and dear) suite markets they have on offer. Before the return of Donald Trump to the White House, American tourists and businessmen phoned months In advance to reserve the rooms of five thousand or ten thousand euros per night. Then the behavior changed: the requests arrive more close to travel; The cancellations and re-prenotes follow one another at the rhythm of the announcements, of the forward escapes and the gears back of Trump on duties.

The cancellation of the American Federal Court

Each turning point in this Drôle de Guerre on trade coincides with a change in the book of reservations of five -star penthouses of the big Italian cities. And the turns were not lacking: theCancellation of « mutual » duties by An American federal court tonight It is at least the twenty -seventh surprise in succession starting from the first duties to 10% on China of 4 February last, up to the Liberation Day of April 2 and the relative back marches or new accelerations.

« Emergency »

The sentence on the Italian night simply declares that Trump did not have the right to invoke a state of international emergency to set new duties with a series of executive orders, essentially, on the rest of the world. It is difficult to argue that there is an « emergency », with 4% unemployment in the United States and A commercial deficit that has been going on for almost half a century. This is the first abrupt retaliation on forced exchanges by the judges, after a series of steering imposed on Trump by a series of rioters of the financial markets: the same that were destroying thousands of billions of equity value and pushing American tourists to cancel their reservations in the luxury suite in Milan.

The appeal

Obviously it does not end here, it cannot end here. The American administration has already filed an appeal that will inevitably rise up to a supreme court of judges in the majority close to the president and often appointed by him. The White House will look for other legal escapades to reconstitute the duties castle – now dismantled – that he had done climb from 2.2% average of January to 10% on the rest of the world; plus 25% duties on cars, steel and aluminum, plus « temporary » duties at 30% on China (not to mention the threat of 50% duties on the European Union if there had not been an agreement by 9 July).

Political response and economic impact

So everything is in the air, all temporary. This will remain the picture, with the due variations, for months again. However, at least two lessons are looming, one policy and the other relating to the economic impact. The latter will be almost inevitably negative for most of the international economy: the United States weigh on their own for about 14% of world imports, For a value equal to almost 4% of the gross product of the earth. The uncertainty of the market, politics and legal on access to the first market on the planet can only curb millions of investment decisions of companies everywhere in the world; Many will wait for the picture to be clarified, but the simultaneous braking of an immense number of operators risks multiplying the adverse effects for world growth.

The agreement with London

It is the price of unruly and, frankly, of the approximation with which Trump leads his policies. We will all pay for it, we are probably already paying it.
However, there is a political lesson. And the European Union, including Italy included. Why The most embarrassed reaction to the American sentence of the night camethis morning, from London. The British government had been the first to conclude an « agreement » with the White House that accepted the duties at 10% (now declared illegal), in exchange for a vague American promise to reduce – who knows when – cars and steel rates. All very vague, all out of a legal picture, all subject to Trump’s moods. All skipped tonight.

Negotiations

Previous of the genre should advise the European Championships not to throw what makes them strong, credible and respected in the world to the nettles: the supremacy of the right instead of arbitrariness; competence in negotiations, instead of approximation; the defense of markets and open companies, instead of closing, of resentment and imposed or accepted submission.
Europe will lose something from the advent of Trump. But it can earn respect for the rest of the world and its citizens. Paradoxically, in the scale of opportunity, it is equivalent to a five -star suite with a view of the rest of the world: without price.