Dialogue for strategic stability must be restored
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced the need to restore dialogue with the United States on strategic stability interrupted by the American side in February 2022. Under the previous US administration, the parties failed to agree on this, for negotiations on this topic with the new team in the White House conditions, as follows from the comments of the Russian Foreign Minister, have not yet been created. Meanwhile, in less than a year, the validity of the most important bilateral agreement on strategic offensive weapons (DSNV) will expire, and if Moscow and Washington do not agree on some measures to replace it, then the two largest nuclear powers will remain without agreements in the field of control over weapons for the first time in half a century.
Sergey Lavrov in an interview « First Channel » I spoke in detail on the subject of strategic stability. According to him, « the Russian-American dialogue for strategic stability needs to be restored. » “We agree with this,” the minister said, commenting on the calls of the past and current US administrations on the resumption of contacts between Washington and Moscow on this topic. At the same time, he emphasized that it is necessary to do this “exclusively on the basis of a return to the principles underlying the agreement on strategic offensive weapons and reflected in its preamble, including the relationship between strategic offensive, strategic defensive weapons, including mutual respect and an agreement to conduct business exclusively on the basis of equality.”
“So far, we, in fact, are doctrinal enemy (for the USA. « Kommersant »), what stability can we talk about? » – added Sergey Lavrov.
Recall that until February 2022, Moscow and Washington were consulted on agreements that could replace the DSNV, but against the backdrop of the conflict around Ukraine, this dialogue on the initiative of the United States was interrupted. In June 2023, the administration of Joe Biden invited Russia to return to the topic of control over weapons and reducing nuclear risks, but the Russian authorities considered the unacceptable the isolation of these issues from the entire amount of acute contradictions between Moscow and Washington.
With the coming to power in the United States, Donald Trump, there were signs that the situation could change for the better. In recent weeks, the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States have repeatedly signed their interest in discussing issues related to control over weapons (See “Kommersant” from February 24). However, there is little time for substantive negotiations on the replacement of the DSNV: the contract expires on February 5, 2026. Once he was already extended for five years and cannot extend anymore.
At the moment, the contract is valid limited. In February 2023 Russia I suspended Participation in the DSNV, explaining the decision by two reasons: by the fact that the United States violates this contract, and the fact that circumstances have radically changed compared to 2010, when it was concluded. The United States did not agree with any of these points. At the same time, the authorities of the Russian Federation announced their readiness and continue to adhere to the quantitative restrictions stipulated by the contract if the Americans arrive the same way. We are talking about 700 units for detailed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBR), ballistic missiles of submarines (BRP) and heavy bombers (TB), 1550 units for combat for them and 800 units for detailed and intelligible launchers of the ICBM and BRP, as well as TB. In addition, Moscow promised to further notify the United States in advance of the launches of the ICBR and the BPL, as well as the major strategic exercises. The United States, in turn, was assured that they would also adhere to quantitative ceilings under the contract, and expressed their readiness to provide Russia with the same notifications of launches and exercises.
During his first presidential term, Donald Trump really wanted to connect China to negotiations on the control of weapons between the United States and Russia. However, Beijing refused to join this process, referring to a significant difference in the amount of nuclear arsenals of countries. According to the Stockholm International Institute for Research of Peace Research (Sipri), Russia has 4380 nuclear warheads, and the United States – 3708 (these figures do not include written -off and not yet disposed of charges; and data on the Russian Federation are approximate, since it will not publish information about its arsenal since 2023). China authorities also do not publish data about their nuclear weapons. Sipri assesses the number of nuclear warheads in China at 500 pieces, but notes that it is faster than other countries increasing its potential. At the same time, in the recently published report by the apparatus of the US National Intelligence Director, China is called Washington’s main strategic rival.
In an interview with the “First Channel”, Sergei Lavrov said that “PRC is deciding” whether she would want to join the possible future negotiations between Russia and the United States on strategic stability. “US President Donald Trump (and Joe Biden before him) says China must be involved in these negotiations. We had such a position: firstly, this is Beijing. As he decides, we will be fully respected to his choice, ”said the Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation.
Secondly, according to him, “if we talk about the expansion of the circle of participants (negotiation process. « Kommersant »), then where to put France and Britain? » “These two (possessing nuclear weapons. – « Kommersant ») countries along with the United States are members of one alliance (NATO.- « Kommersant ») who in the years of Joe Biden, and before him, too, expressed a little good to us, and during his presidency simply declared us « the main threat. » If we are the “main threat”, and we are told, let’s talk to you, but do not touch these two sides, then this is dishonest, ”Sergey Lavrov developed his thought.
France (which, according to experts, 290 nuclear warheads) and the UK (who has about 230) earlier, like China, did not show interest in arms control, justifying this by the difference between their arsenals with Russia and the USA.
Meanwhile, if Moscow and Washington do not develop some new agreements to replace the DSNV, then for the first time since the 1970s they will remain without any restrictions in the field of strategic weapons.
Director of the Center for Military-Economic Research by the Institute of World Military Economics and the Strategy of the Higher School of Economics Prokhor Tebin, in an interview with Kommersant, doubted that fifty consultations would be able to launch the remaining DSNV for months before the expiration of the DSNV. “This is unrealistic. First of all, against the backdrop of the policy of London and Paris, as well as their relations with both Russia and the administration of Trump. However, the situation may change in the future, ”the expert admitted.“ It is possible that Moscow on the one hand and Washington – on the other hand, can contribute to building an informal dialogue or consultations of each other (including shuttle or intermediary) with China and France/Great Britain, respectively. At some point, other members of the nuclear five may become interesting. But, in my opinion, in the case of China, this probability, although low, but still higher than in relation to France and Great Britain, especially against the background of the current course on the « strategic autonomy of Europe » and attempts to replace or supplement the American « nuclear umbrella ». «
