DGEG provides for increased electricity consumption between 2025 and 2040
Electricity consumption should increase between 2025 and 2040. This is one of the conclusions of the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG) of the ‘National Electric System Safety Monitoring Report 2025-2040’ which also reveals that this increase in annual consumption could vary between 1.4% and 0.6%, depending on the analyzed scenario (upper scenario ambition and conservative lower scenario).
«In the upper ambition-stress test the average annual growth rate in the period 2024-2029 is 2.1%,” the document also indicates that the forecasts of the demand evolution of this report are lower than the previous reports in all scenarios by 2030. “From 2035, demand in all scenarios is above the surroundings of the 2023 report scenarios”, explaining that this situation is to “this situation It is essentially due to the most relevant evolution of the consumption of large industrial projects from 2030, although it also assumes a self-consumption aspect that goes towards reducing the consumption referred to net production »
The document also draws attention to the fact that the national electroproductor system will evolve towards accelerating renewable energy sources, considering that this trend « puts increasing challenges to the management of intermittent and variability of production associated with these sources », also noting that there was a growing electrification of consumptions, « particularly in the transport sector, which increases the complexity of network and network management increases the complexity of the network and consumptions ».
Spanish connection
The document states that taking into account the additional sensitivity analysis of the supply in the trajectory ambition that assumes the full disqualification of the current gas -combined cycle thermal centers in 2030 and the conditions for the higher scenario ambition, it can be concluded that even with the 100% contribution of the Spain/Portugal interconnection capacity) “It is not possible to comply with the supply safety standard, with lole (Lost of Load Load Expectation) 36 h/year », adding that, » even assuming that there is availability of generation in the Spain Electrop -Producer System, the current gas -combined cycle centrals are essential to ensure the safety of SEN (National Electric System) supply. «
The report also analyzes the level of interconnection between Portugal and Spain, with the investment projects on course or planned to implement, with the DGEg to predict that in the short term (2024 and 2025) – taking into account the agreement established between REN and the Electric Red of España (REE) that began in the first half of 2021 – sustained interconnection capacity values with minimums of 2.700 may be reached. MW in both directions.
Already on horizon 2027, with the entry into service of the Minho – Galicia interconnection (expected to occur by the end of 2025) – the DGEg believes that « it will be possible to exceed network restrictions still existing » and achieve minimum interconnection commercial capacity values of 3,500 MW towards Portugal/ Spain and 4,200 MW towards Spain/ Portugal.
