dengue and chikungunya soon endemic in Europe, according to researchers – Liberation
Dengue and chikungunya could become endemic in Europe. And the main cause is global warming, which promotes the spread of the tiger mosquito – vector of these diseases -, to which are added urbanization and travel, alerts a study published in the journal Lancet Planetary Health This Thursday, May 15.
Currently, 4 billion people in 129 countries are exposed to the risk of contracting dengue or chikungunya. Two diseases especially present until then in tropical and subtropical countries and whose main vectors are « Aedes Aegypti », the yellow fever mosquito, and « Aedes Albopictus », the Asian tiger mosquito.
The extension to the north of the area of presence of the tiger mosquito is favored by global warming: the more hot it is, the more its development cycle is shortening, while the speed of multiplication of the virus in the insect increases under the effect of the temperature.
The study published this May 15 analyzes, for the first time, the links between the risk of dengue and chikungunya epidemics in Europe and many factors, such as climate, environment, socio-economic living conditions, demography as well as entomological data, over thirty-five.
In addition, funded by the European Horizon program for research and innovation, this work operates data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Health Organization and publications on the presence of the Tiger Mosquito in Europe, from its arrival in 1990 until 2024.
If the first home of illness has taken over twenty-five years to appear in Europe, the frequency and extent of epidemics in DEGEGE and CHIKUNGUNYYA have only increased since 2010.
Indeed, in 2024 alone, 304 cases of dengue have been listed, when there were 275 over all of the past fifteen years. And Aboriginal homes have been identified in four countries: Italy, Croatia, France and Spain.
Almost all cases (95 %) occurred between July and September, and three-quarters were located in urban or semi-urban areas, the remaining quarter in rural areas.
Now, in areas where the tiger mosquito has established itself, it can only flow between two explosions of dengue or chikungunya cases« Probably due to the evolution of climatic conditions ». This recurrence is also « Reinforced by the frequency of human travel »show this work.
The study notes that areas where health expenses per capita are higher are also those where an increased risk of epidemic has been noted. This shows that cases are better detected where surveillance has been reinforced-and in contrast, a sub-detection in less prosperous areas.
Another point in this study: each increase in the summer temperature of a degree increases the risk of epidemic. Thus, summers at very high temperatures the« Amplify considerably ». These trends suggest that « Temperature remains an important factor in the risks of future epidemics, in particular in conditions of extreme climatic scenarios »and that « In the whole EU, these diseases tend to become endemic»».
According to projections of the study, in the 2060s, the risk of epidemic could be five times higher than over the period 1990-2024. This pleads for the need to better protect populations against these diseases, in particular by monitoring imported cases, and to establish alert systems.
However, this study presents certain limits, warn its authors. On the one hand, the circulation of these diseases transmitted by mosquitoes in the areas where they are not endemic could be underestimated, because the cases, often asymptomatic, are not recorded.
In addition, surveillance varies from one region or from one country to another, which could lead to overestimate the prevalence of these diseases for example in France, where this monitoring is reinforced compared to other countries.
