‘D-day’ for world trade

Will this day, Wednesday, April 2, 2025, prove to be the « D-day » for international trade, overall for the economies of the planet and especially the biggest? Is this, which will accelerate the clearing of the landscape in the World Trade War, which has already been declared, but has not been judged so far, or to what extent its protagonists are determined to escalate him or who is more likely to be the winner?

The truth is that the Donald Trumpthe president of the dominant (still) superpower who drags the dance – forcing others to follow, wanting and not – has long given a different definition. Speaking of a « day of liberation », he apparently seeks to convince his compatriots that the duty of duties he is preparing to launch in every direction will make the United States stronger, filling their own « fund » – whether they are citizens or businesses.

What does the story show

Not everyone agrees, of course, with his estimates and plans. First of all, the story, which has shown that in a situation like the one that Trump has in mind, which leads to imposing duties on all sides, usually does not win, even if America is. And not only that, but it makes everyone suspicious of his supposed pacifist intentions on other fronts, as it is extremely difficult to believe that a president who does not hesitate to declare an economic war war on enemies and friends seeks to do so.

For their part, most economists and analysts – excluding fanatics – warn that if the president continues the « fire against », there will be no time to find out (together with everyone who voted for him) that he is essentially shooting his feet. In other words, they are indirectly and when directly, that the big losers will ultimately be the US themselves and those who reside or have their own headquarters in them, as the composition of the opposing blocs and, consequently, the end of the world of the world.

Europe and the others

Who will be justified, finally? Although for the time being a safe answer cannot be given, there are some things that already create a new setting. Among them, China, Japan and South Korea – that is, the largest and most threatening US competitor and their two main allies in the Pacific – to join forces and coordinate to deal with the forthcoming US duties.

Although Tokyo and Seoul have not confirmed what was transmitted by Chinese state media (without, however, they have categorically denied …), it is a fact that a meeting of the Ministers of Commerce of the three countries took place on Sunday, where the proposal to create a free zone was discussed. Thus, it is more likely that the well -known saying is in this case: where there is smoke, there is a fire – which the White House has lit.

As for Europe, the initial numbness and the embarrassment caused by Trump’s initiatives seem to be slowly succeeding the instinct of economic and political survival. As typically noted in a report in Politico, « the EU is considering the scenario to open a new front, as Donald Trump is preparing to impose duties on all America’s commercial partners on Wednesday. » To continue: « Although Brussels has so far followed the rules of the trade war (…) by imposing proportionate countermeasures without escalating (…), they are now preparing to raise the bar. »

Ursula von der Layen

« We will approach the negotiations from a position of power, » Ursula von der Layen said before the European Parliament. « Europe holds a lot of papers in its hands. From trade to technology and the size of our markets. But our power is also based on our readiness to receive decisive countermeasures. All tools are on the table, « the commission president said.

Obviously, many will be judged by Trump’s final options and announcements, which, except for a large unexpected, will be made today, with the basic scenarios being two: either horizontal additional 20% duties in all imports, wherever they come from, or « reciprocal and proportionate » duties per country or team. In any case, everyone is now getting ready for the worst if they do not stop hoping for a « miracle ». Or, at least, something that will leave room for negotiation. Short Psalm …

Cost to 1.4 trillion. dollars

As the US president’s staff – who doubled his fortune at $ 5.1 billion last year – made it clear that the tariffs announced today will be immediately implemented, Aston Business School economists were processed by six scenarios for the possible consequences of the US.

1 remain the original duties. If there are no additional measures, prices in the US will rise by 2.7% and the actual per capita income will decline by 0.9% there, 3.2% in Canada and 5% in Mexico.

2 countermeasures from Canada, Mexico and China. Income losses in the US will rise to 1.1% and by 5.1% in Canada and 7.7% in Mexico.

3 US duties imposition 25% against the EU. Serious turbulence on the production process in Europe, a 1.5% reduction in income in the US.

4 EU countermeasures with 25% US duties. Significant price increase on both sides of the Atlantic and mutual serious losses in actual per capita income.

5 Imposition of general duties by the US worldwide. Rapid reduction in international trade, as well as large price increases.

6 countermeasures from all countries against the US. International trade will « kneel », while total losses are expected to reach up to 1.4 trillion. worldwide.

1.2 trillion. Dollars is estimated to have been for 2024 the US trade deficit in goods trading. Much is all about European countries, with Germany first and Ireland second, which recorded a surplus of $ 85 and $ 87 billion last year.

49 The processing index in the US was formed in March, compared to 50.3 in February. It is noted that each value less than 50 indicates a decrease in activity in the industry.

20% have boosted gold in international markets since the beginning of the year, as investors are « smelling » intense turmoil and turning to traditional secure shelter at such times.

10.5% have dropped Wall Street’s Nasdaq index in the first quarter, as US technology companies are estimated to be one of the big victims of a World War. The S&P 500 has receded by 4.5%.