Customs policy harms the United States itself in particular

According to an analysis of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the US tariffs have the biggest impact on the USA itself – and Canada. Apart from the trading volume, economic output will also suffer: This year, the WTO only expects 0.4 instead of two percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in North America. She only provides your data together for the USA and Canada.

In North America, exports are likely to decrease by 12.6 percent this year, imports by 9.6 percent, according to WTO analysis. Before the customs announcements, she expected 2.2 percent of exports and plus 2.8 percent in imports. According to WTO forecasts, the Chinese exports to the USA decrease by 77 percent in the current scenario.

Europe less affected

For Europe, the consequences are significantly less dramatic: plus one percent exports (instead of previously expected 1.4 percent) and 1.9 percent imports instead of 2.1 percent. In GDP, WTO for Europe sees 1.2 instead of 1.4 percent growth in the current year.

This is a snapshot with the valid customs rules. The United States has already imposed tariffs and announced more, but this largely exposed for 90 days. If the current scenario remains, the traded goods volume should shrink by 0.2 percent worldwide instead of growing by 2.7 percent as previously expected.

However, if the exposed tariffs come and counter tariffs and uncertainty, a decline in the trading volume can be expected by up to 1.5 percent, according to the WTO. In global GDP, the WTO 2025 still expects 2.2 percent growth, reduced by 2.8 percent that it had expected before the US customs duties.

Take care of more Chinese competition

The high US tariffs on Chinese products caused concern in other countries. The WTO assumes that Chinese exports in all regions outside of North America will grow by four to 9 percent this year by six percent. On the other hand, there are new export opportunities to the USA if significantly fewer textiles, clothing and electrical appliances from China are imported there.

According to WTO information, the trading volume grew by 2.9 percent and global GDP by 2.8 percent. In dollars, the trade expanded by two percent to $ 24.4 trillion (almost 21.5 trillion euros).