Customs dispute with the USA: Federal Council in Economic Policy Rodeo

On Wednesday, the Federal Council passed the mandate for negotiations with the USA. It is an undertaking with a significant risk of falling. An analysis.

Negotiation with the government of Donald Trump is like rodeo riding. You sit on a wild bull and have no idea which Bock jump will follow. It’s just about staying up as long as possible. And to look reasonably elegant as a rider.

To prevent misunderstandings: Rodeo is not a competition between rider and animal, because in the end you will definitely be thrown – the power of the bull is too great. The riders are compared with each other.

There is an important difference between rodeo and Trump negotiations: the former is voluntary, the latter forces Trump to the world. In this respect, it is not courage and adventure if the Federal Council is preparing for negotiations in the customs dispute with the United States – it is a political necessity. Puncture tariffs of 31 percent on all Swiss products from July 3, as was threatened by Trump, would be fatal for the Swiss export industry.

Nuts, lemons and seafood

For almost two months, the Federal Council has prepared for the negotiations that wild rode in preliminary talks with the US trade delegate Jamieson Greer and Trump’s finance minister Scott Bessent. And on Wednesday he said goodbye to a negotiating mandate.

There are only a few content information. Among other things, market access for certain agricultural products from the USA such as nuts, citrus fruits and seafood are to be improved. And the Federal Council of the Trump government also promises a simplified admission of medical products. « The discussions with the USA would also continue with regard to tax issues and in questions of vocational training, as it says in the message.

The decision of Wednesday was reportedly preceded by violent discussions in the Bundeshaus. Two of the most important questions: What should the federal government offer to the Americans? And: how quickly should Bern move forward?

More numbers for less tariffs?

At times, strange rumors were circulating on the question of the offer. In the administration, one should even consider to offer Trump an increase in medication prices in Switzerland in order to obtain customsizers in return. To classify: Trump has not only announced punitive tariffs, he also threatens to radically reduce the extremely high pharmaceutical prices in the United States. The United States is no longer ready to finance global pharmaceutical research with the high prices.

From other countries, especially in Europe, he demands the consequence of increasing their prices. This topic has not yet been off the table for Switzerland with its pharmaceutical giants in Basel – but the Federal Council does not want to directly link the medi -prices directly with the tariffs.

On Monday, Defense Minister Martin Pfister also gave an insight into the customs discussions in Bundesbern on the occasion of his 50-day media conference in the Jura. When asked about a corresponding question, he said: « Arms business with the United States was initially an issue in negotiations with the United States, but for the United States they do not seem to be of this explosiveness that they still play a role. »

There are other investments there, « especially industrial investments play a central role ». The diplomatic good services are also important, « I remember the conversations that took place in Geneva between the USA and China ».

How much are the good services worth?

In fact, the Federal Council has also brought itself into a good starting position in recent weeks thanks to the diplomatic commitment. With the organization of the customs summit between China and the USA on the weekend of May 10th and 11th in Geneva, he gained direct access to the decision-makers of the two economic superpowers. At least one could explain the position of Switzerland.

But whether China and the USA really respect the independent Swiss course in the global trade dispute. Not to forget the EU, which, given Switzerland’s participation in the common internal market, will take a close look that the federal government will not negotiate benefits with the USA at its expense.

The risk of being able to be instrumentalized by Trump after a quick customs deal against the EU is apparently recognized in Bern. So you can also hear votes that speak against the high pace in the conversations with Washington, which Karin Keller-Sutter struck in Geneva on May 9th. At that time, the Federal President said that a fundamental declaration with the United States would be achieved within two weeks at the latest and – to Great Britain – negotiations as a second country if possible. The deadline expired last week. You need more time, it said at the federal government on request.

The reason is said to be behind the scenes after Trump took the EU last week-first he threatened 50 percent of punitive tariffs from June, then he extended the deadline until July 9th-the US administration simply lacks the time to take care of Switzerland. « There is a bottle neck, » says an insider.

That could come to the Federal Council. With the mandate now adopted, he signals to participate in the Rodeo with Trump. But you are not forced to climb one of the first on the bulls. So Bern can wait and see how the competitors position themselves. And speculate that Trump does not make his threats true on July 3-because another bull points him out: the one of the stock exchange on Walls Street, who has reacted to every customs threat to the US President with wild goat jumps.