Counting protesters is important: ‘You want it to be about the message, not about the number of people’

According to tradition, the protest against the placement of cruise missiles – in 1983 in The Hague – with 550,000 participants was the largest in Dutch history. The organization was very charged to estimate the number of attendees – before that she looked at the sale of train tickets and the number of rented buses. Logical, because the number of people coming up shows how much support the message enjoys.

Numbers are politics, also sees Stefan Verwer, communication manager at Oxfam Novib. Verwer contributed to the estimate of the number of people who attended the red line demonstration of Oxfam Novib last Sunday.

Some demonstrators dropped out at the Peace Palace, for example people who had difficulty walking

That afternoon the organization reported that 150,000 people were present at the protest in The Hague. With the demonstrations, the organization wants to continue until « Dutch politics draws the red line and the Dutch complicity of Israel’s war crimes stops ».

This time, Oxfam Novib had thought out how to count the number of participants, Verwer says: « We wanted to prevent it from gone by a rough estimate. An attempt is often made to propose the turnout lower than it actually is. »

He experienced this after the previous red line demonstration of 18 May, which was estimated at one hundred thousand participants-a number for which there was not such an extensive substantiation as this time.

‘Atmosphere managers’

How did Oxfam Novib estimate? With the help of about fifty ‘atmosphere managers’, which must ensure that the demonstration does not get out of hand. They stood along the approach routes to the Malieveld and on the site itself. Later they also stood by the procession that traveled through the city. At three agreed moments they took pictures of their location. A colleague away, behind a computer, determined how many people were on average per square meter. « We have entered the data in MapChecking, » says Verwer. That is an online tool that estimates the number of people present on the basis of the density of people and the surface.

MAPCHECKING is also used by some municipalities and the police at events. But: « It remains to a large extent human work. »

The first count, where 150,000 came out, was between 1 p.m. and 1.30 p.m., says Verwer. It was the busiest moment at the start of the Mars. Later counts were slightly lower, partly because some of the participants stopped on the way or left prematurely. « Some dropped out at the Peace Palace, for example people who had difficulty walking. »

According to Verwer, the difference between the highest and the lowest measurement was a maximum of five thousand people.

Police

In news items, very different numbers also emerged: a few tens of thousands, « one hundred thousand, » the NOS wrote. And ANP news agency estimated seventy thousand people at a certain moment.

What about that? According to Verwer, they mainly made an estimate in mind. That is almost impossible when it comes to so many people, he says. « On our stage, someone was initially called the number 100,000, even before we had made our substantiated estimate. »

This time Oxfam Novib was the only one who had systematically counting. In the past, the police often estimated the turnout, but no longer, says spokesman Suzanne of the count of the national police. The police noticed that her estimates often differed from those of the organization, which subsequently led to impossible. « They remain estimates. »

Such disagreement arose, for example, in the Mars for the Netherlands, in 2021. The organization wanted a sound against the Corona measures. The municipality spoke of more than twenty thousand demonstrators, the organization assumed fifty thousand to one hundred thousand people. « That’s not how we wanted it, » says Verwer. « You don’t want the discussion about the number of people, instead of the message. »

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