Could the raw material deal be a symbol of hope?

Ukraine gives the United States access to valuable mineral resources in order to keep the superpower as an ally against Russian aggression. The agreement was negotiated for weeks and argued about the possible sale of the war -plagued Ukraine – an agreement is now signed. However, the way to actual use of the raw materials is still far.

Does the agreement increase the chance of the end of the war?

The political importance of the agreement is likely to be greater than the economic. With the ongoing discussion about different models of a ceasefire – 3 days, 30 days or 3 months – the raw materials only have to do marginally. But the agreement shows that the USA and Ukraine could agree on one point – even after the scandal between Trump and Selenskyj in the White House at the end of February.

Similar resilient appointments are still pending with Russia and Putin. Trump and his team were recently irritated by the Moscow delay tactics. Putin-admirer Trump even said that he felt led around the nose.

At the same time, the understanding of the situation of Ukraine seems to grow in the Trump government. The short conversation between Trump and Selenskyj should have contributed to the burial of Pope Francis in Rome.

At the beginning, Trump had accused Selenskyj of waging a war, as his Ukraine representative Keith Kellogg now saw the country militarily in a « comfortable position ». « Russia won’t win in this war, » the ex-general told Fox News. « If they won, they would have done it in three years. Now the fourth year is running. »

What does Kyiv hope for from the agreement?

The United States wants to keep the United States as an ally despite the extent between Trump and Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, even if Trump excludes Ukraine’s admission to NATO. Kyiv hopes for a continuation of American arms deliveries through the agreement.

The Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj brought his country’s allegedly valuable raw materials to the United States in autumn 2024. He appealed to Trump’s self -image as a businessmaker.

In fact, Trump bite, but at intolerable conditions. It has been rumored, for example, that the United States in the meantime demanded that Ukraine have to pay a billion dollar US military aid since 2022.

The Ukrainian negotiator Julia Swryrydenko was able to keep such impositions out of the agreement. However, Selenskyj’s hope for security guarantees is not fulfilled. However, US Finance Minister Scott Bessent called the Agreement a clear signal to the Russian leadership that the Trump government campaigns for a peace process in the long term. A « free, sovereign and prospering Ukraine » is in the interests of the United States.

What does Washington want to achieve with the contract?

The US President needed a success. With his announcement, he failed to end the Russian-Ukrainian War, which has been going on since 2022. The agreement offers him the opportunity to present a deal. When investments are really made and possibly dividends from the fund to be created to the United States will flow back in secondary importance.

So far, it is unanswered where the money for investments should come from if it does not come from tax funds. Trump would have to offer investors attractive conditions. Above all, this includes permanent peace in Ukraine.

What is known about the content?

It was agreed that Washington and Kiev, equally, create a common fund in which the profits should flow from future raw material projects. The United States is given privileged access to Ukrainian raw materials. The deposits should be made in money, although US military aids can also be offset.

« Ukraine keeps control of all resources, » said Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal on Ukrainian news television. Lagerates or infrastructure objects are not an object of the contract. Kyiv will make contributions from new licenses and income from funding rights. The fund is to invest in projects to recreate Ukraine over the course of ten years. The Ukrainian and the American partners are also freed from taxes and tariffs.

Before the entry into force, the ratification of the agreement by the Ukrainian parliament is necessary. This could become a mood test among the MPs.

Are the Ukrainian soil treasures actually so valuable?

From aluminum to zinc, the agreement lists 57 soil treasures that are to be used together. This also includes metals of rare earths that are important for many high technology products. The problem: nobody knows the exact size of the Ukrainian occurrence. The exploration data often comes from Soviet times. Some of the mineral resources are also located in Russian.

Some raw material deposits in Ukraine are currently difficult to assess, said the scientific director of the Helmholtz Institute Freiberg for Resource Technology (HIF), Jens Gutzmer, the Swiss broadcaster SRF. With regard to rare earths or lithium, one knows that there are rocks that are assembled anomally. « You have to (…) first explore for five to ten years – this is my personal assessment – before you know whether you have a reduced deposit or just a occurrence with unusual concentrations, » he said.

To Trump’s claim that the United States with the deal may flow values ​​of more than $ 350 billion, says Gutzmer: « In my view, this is pure speculation as a geoscientist and is not a solid foundation. »