Cost explosion in rail expansion – and for years restrictions for travelers

The railway expansion becomes more expensive, delays itself and is now questioned by the Federal Council. The cantons and the train are not prepared for this case. Experts criticize that this is « irresponsible ».

The first machines have already been opened in Zurich-Stadelhofen. Construction workers have excavated a tunnel almost unnoticed by tens of thousands of daily train passengers in the past few weeks. He is the first harbinger of the planned expansion of the train station.

It is said to enable more features, but is representative of the problems of the railway expansion: it becomes more expensive and later finished than planned. In 2019, the federal government assumed CHF 900 million and commissioning at the end of 2035. The latest forecast: almost CHF 1.2 billion costs, opening at the end of 2037.

The project at the Stadelhofen is part of the expansion step 2035 (AS 2035), for which the parliament approved CHF 16 billion after several increases. That won’t be enough either. In a new report, the Federal Council expects almost CHF 20 billion to end costs for the projects decided by the parliament.

Rösti pulls emergency brake

This is not all: at the end of 2024 it was shown that it would need further extensions to be able to implement the promised offer. This leads to additional costs of a total of CHF 14 billion. It also looks dark in terms of time: the last projects should only be completed in the mid-2040s.

The increase in costs is related to the fact that the SBB 2021 had calculated and noticed that earlier assumptions were too optimistic. The absence of technology for quick cornering in the new FV-Dosto trains also ensures that shorter travel times are not possible thanks to modern trains, but have to be bought with new infrastructures.

Federal Councilor Albert Rösti (SVP) Pulled the emergency brake at the beginning of the year: He commissioned ETH professor Ulrich Weidmann to check all projects. Weidmann should answer fundamental questions: Which extensions are needed, which could be dispensed with, which could be realized later?

Quick improvements required

The thing is procedure. Now experts are launching. They demand the opportunity to take the opportunity and rethink the expansion. One of them includes Philipp Morf, the head of the consulting company Otimon. With ex-SBB boss Benedikt Weibel, he criticized the expansion step in 2035 earlier. Morf calls for a return to the original goals: to offer the necessary new connections and additional seats as of 2030, as required by cantons and trains. The now intended extensions would come too late. But there is good news: « Most goals can be realized on the existing infrastructure. »

New infrastructures are always required to improve the offer, says Morf. It is better to use the existing resources quickly. But if the SBB always reacted to wishes for better offers with demands for extensions, « one does not have to be surprised that politicians consider it as a solution. »

The existing infrastructure could drive significantly more trains. The SBB showed this in western Switzerland. As of the end of 2024, they introduced a new timetable there, which brought 15 percent more and according to the train on time. « The SBB has proven that more features are possible immediately and without expanding the infrastructure, » says Morf. « You have to proceed in the rest of the country similarly. » On the connection Zurich – Winterthur, for example, long -distance trains could drive non -stop via Via Wallisellen. This can relieve the S-Bahn and implement the St.Gallen knot.

Destilizations threaten

Instead of presenting such solutions, the SBB pushed an infrastructure expansion through, which brings the opposite: no longer, but fewer connections. During the twenty years of construction of the AS 2035, construction site timetables would lead to massive thinning and deterioration of the offer. « SBB act irresponsibly with this nonsensical consequence, » says Morf. « The needs of customers are ignored. » After all, the federal government understood this message, showing the review of the expansion.

He does not deny that it is needed. But: « If the railway with investments of more than 30 billion francs hardly gains any market shares, the package is not fed out. » Morf demands that investments are geared towards the extraction of market shares. « The population is growing in the agglomerations around the core cities, but the train has not yet been prepared for it. »

This criticism of the expansion is not shared by all experts. Many emphasize the importance of the projects. The capacity required can only be created with them to catch traffic growth. In the past few months the former head of the Federal Office of Transport (BAV), Peter Füglistaler, politician and SBB experts Against criticism.

How on with the heart?

But on one point you can hardly contradict Morf: there is a lack of plans for rapid improvements. The Zürcher Verkehrsverbund (ZVV), for example, is based on the fact that all extensions are realized. They are « absolutely necessary for a stable and demand -oriented overall concept, » says spokeswoman Lucia Frei.

The problem: The expanded Stadelhofen train station should not go into operation until the end of 2037, the Brüttener tunnel at the end of 2035. Passengers can no longer expect significant offerings for over ten years. On the contrary: the construction work will lead to restrictions. Individual small extensions should be completed in the next few years. But they do nothing without the rest. « There are no sub -concepts that would work with a reduced number of infrastructure expansion, » says Frei.

Other cantons also focus on the implementation of the AS 2035 – or are in the situation that their desired projects are only intended for a later expansion step. This includes Lucerne with the underground station and Basel-Stadt with the heart. The more money from the AS 2035, the less there is available.

Rösti gives little hope

In the next expansion step, which the Federal Council wants to submit to Parliament in 2027, repair measures are likely to be in the foreground in order to save the AS 2035 to some extent. He will be “focused” on producing the concept of the AS 2035, ”writes the federal government.

That has followed. The Basel heart recently degraded Federal Councilor Rösti at an event for a project in the “Outlook” category. « We have to be honest with ourselves », he said according to the « Basler Zeitung ». He did not want to « politicize somewhere in the clouds ».

A hope for the critics remains: that Rösti 2027 submits a template to Parliament, which, based on Weidmann’s analysis, provides for large projects from AS 2035. Politically, this would be delicate, the AS 2035 was decided by the parliament. In the industry, few believe in such a scenario. The SBB have already communicated that the trains between Winterthur and Zurich need more travel time from December. They did not give the reason for this: it is construction work for the Brüttener tunnel that should start.

The project is currently being checked by Weidmann. In the third quarter, the ETH specialist should present his results. You will be pioneering for the question of whether there will be a rethink – or whether the railway expansion continues according to the motto « eyes closed and through ».