Conversations about taxes between US and China are ‘only a first exploration’

Since US President Donald Trump introduced a first import tax of 34 percent on all products from China at the beginning of April, the world’s largest two economies of warlike language has been alternating with invitations to the other person to open the conversation. China is « prepared to dialogue » but if the US prefers to fight, China is also ready for that, said it. Donald Trump claimed That the Chinese « desperate desire for an agreement » and that he was waiting for their phone call.

But at the same time, bitter reproaches sounded: according to Trump, the US was « scammed », China, according to Beijing, « harassed. » As a retribution, both countries piled up on tax, until – as the American Minister of Finance recognized Scott Bessent last week – there was in fact a commercial.

Now both countries seem cautiously prepared to consult. On Wednesday it was announced that Chinese and American top officials meet this weekend in Geneva to talk about the trade war that has arisen.

In the meantime, the consequences can be felt: in Los Angeles – the largest container port in the US, with China as the most important trading partner – now comes 35 percent less freight Inside then last year, said director Gene Seroka. Some freight ships that were already on the road turned around. And that is what American consumers notice, he warned: « If nothing happens, we get shortages and less choice, both on the shelves and on web stores. »

China published surprisingly good export figures on Friday: although exports to the US in April made up by 21 percent, that is made up for due to a significant increase in exports to other Asian countries and Europe. On balance, Chinese exports grew by 8.1 percent in April compared to last year.

For China, that is a boost for the conversation with the Americans, this weekend in Geneva – it shows that it is much less dependent on the output to the US than before. But analyst warn That growth is partly temporary: companies in Southeast Asia, for example, would have quickly introduced Chinese raw materials and semi-finished products to be able to deliver as much as possible for the suspended American levies for those countries. And many countries have now announced their own taxes to prevent dumping of Chinese products, which did not yet apply in April. The trade war is possible in China Sixteen million jobs threatenCalcated Goldman Sachs.

That the current situation is not sustainable has penetrated both governments. That was already apparent when Washington Chinese microelectronics, including smartphonesin April of the taxes exception. China also stated a list On from difficult to replace American products – such as certain medicines and chemicals – that are not taxed extra.

Diplomatic agility

But after all the militant language, nor Trump was able to afford to be the first to blink for their own audience. Both sides claimed several times in recent weeks that the other would have asked for a conversation, which was then denied by the counterparty.

The creation of the meeting this weekend therefore required some diplomatic agility, and some Swiss help. Bessent and commercial envoy Jamieson Greer meet the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng on Saturday in Geneva officially more or less by chance. Bessent is in Switzerland for one Meeting with Federal President Karin Keller-Sutterwhile huh by invitation of the Swiss and French governments will visit Europe. « This meeting was requested by the Americans, » spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized on Thursday at a press conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and China is not the worst.

The Chinese would like to know what the Americans actually want

A article From ‘Zhong Sheng’, a pseudonym including comments from the Chinese Communist Party about foreign policy, made on Thursday in Chinese Volksdagblad It is clear that Beijing nevertheless expects that Washington is taking the first step: « If the US wants to sincerely solve problems through dialogue and negotiation, they must convert their statements into substantial policy adjustments. »

Whether that is realistic can be seen. On Wednesday, Trump said that there was no question of reducing the taxes of 145 percent, Friday ply The ever -whimsical US president suddenly on social media that 80 percent seemed great to him: « It’s up to Scott B. »

But it will probably not come directly to an agreement in Geneva, Besent announced earlier. « We first have to display them before we can take steps forward. »

Fentanyl

That is also what Bert Hofman, professor of the East Asia Institute of the National University of Singapore and previously, among others, China, among others, at the World Bank. « This is just a first exploration. The Chinese would like to know what the Americans actually want. She is not clear, and not really me either. And they want to gauge the mood: whether this is all serious. »

A follow -up appointment is probably the highest attainable outcome. « We have to hope that things will all go a bit reasonable during the weekend, and that something concrete comes out in the form of an agenda. And then an appointment for the next meeting. »

Small concessions may break the ice. Several American media reported That Beijing is investigating whether the Washington can meet in the fight against the synthetic drug Fentanyl, who makes many victims in the US. The raw materials for this mainly come from China, which according to Trump does too little to combat trade.

Trump introduced import duties of 20 percent on all Chinese products at the beginning of this year. « If China makes commitments in that area, the US could say: we reduce the taxes that are actually for the fentanyl. » Another possibility is to endure certain sectors, Hofman thinks. « That would also be a pretty small, but important sign of good will. But much further than that I don’t see it going. »

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