Conti, S&P raises Italy’s rating to BBB+ with stable outlook. Giorgetti: « The seriousness of the government awarded »

The good news comes late in the evening, after a day where the forecasts of the government and the Bank of Italy on the growth of GDP had been compared to the duties. The Standard & Poor’s agency improves the rating on the sovereign debt of Italy, from BBB to BBB+, keeping the outlook, as a « stable » as last October. The promotion on the rating, says S&P « reflects the improvement of Italy’s economy in a context of growing winds contrary to a global level, as well as the gradual progress made in the stabilization of public finances ».

The evaluation

Trump’s decision to suspend the duties announced for three months « means that the blow to the economy of Italy – reads again – will be manageable, partially attenuated by the acceleration of public investments and by the German tax stimulus ». S&P therefore provides « that the debt-pil ratio will stabilize starting from 2028 ». In favor of Italy, the agency says, it also plays the « political continuity » and the « stability of the majority » of government. « Our projections – however S&P warns – reflect the hypothesis that the basic US duties on EU goods (including Italian ones) remain at 10% ».

Reactions

Immediate satisfaction of the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti: «The judgment of S&P rewards the seriousness of the government’s approach to budgetary policy. In the general climate of uncertainty, prudence and responsibility they will continue to be our line of action ».

The DFP

Not surprisingly, in the DFP, public finance document, which the government has sent to Parliament, Giorgetti, despite claiming the « remarkable improvement in public finance in 2024 », maintains the usual caution in the forecasts, with the GDP seen by 0.6% this year and 0.8% in ’26 and ’27. But, in case of further tensions on exports, the already modest growth, warns the document, would stop at 0.5% in 2025 and 0.6% in ’26. And the deficit would be affected (2.9% of GDP next year instead of 2.8%) and the debt (138.1% of GDP in 2026 instead of 137.6%).

Government forecasts

The Parliamentary Budget Office validated the government’s forecasts, but « assuming the full and timely realization of the PNRR and the hypotheses of the Ministry of Economy on the international context ». Hypothesis, underlines the Authority, however subject to an uncertainty that determines risks « clearly oriented down ». Moreover, according to UPB itself, the growth of GDP in the first quarter 2025 did not go beyond 0.25%.

The trend of the accounts

The Bank of Italy, in the new estimates issued in the economic bulletin, is also aligned with the forecasts of the DFP (GDP +0.6% in 2025 and +0.8% in ’26). While companies are called to navigate in these agitated waters, workers continue to tighten the belt. In fact, in the bulletin we read that in Italy, in 2024, despite the growth of the contractual wages, the wages have still been about 8% lower in real terms compared to the levels of 2021.

The measures

In the DFP the government promises a strengthening of family policies and for the occupation of young people and women. Among the things that did not work, the document speaks of the transition 5.0 incentives for companies, where only 500 million on 6.3 billion were spent, and on the biennial agreed, the tax amnesty to which only 13% of the audience concerned joined.