Consumer sentiments stabilized against the background of a surge of inflation expectations
Against the background of a surge of inflation expectations of the population recorded in April (See “Kommersant” from April 18) His consumer moods stabilized at the level of the previous month, the Bank of Russia said.
This stabilization is observed against the backdrop of an improvement in the expectations index (plus 0.7 of the month for a month, but minus 3.9 points a year for a year) with a deterioration in the current state of affairs (minus 1.1 and minus 3.3 points, respectively). In particular, the expectations of a change in personal financial situation and economic conditions in the country in the next year have increased, but at the same time, the assessments of the country’s development prospects for five years ahead somewhat worsened. In terms of the current situation, assessments of a change in the personal financial situation over the past year have decreased and the assessments of the favorable moment for large purchases have increased.
The tendency of respondents to save in April, according to polls, has not changed much. The share of preferring to save free money, and not spend it on the purchase of expensive goods, amounted to 50.9%, remaining below the average value since the beginning of 2016 (54%). In April, respondents more often reported that it was better to store savings on the bank account – the share of such answers was 48% (plus 2 percentage points for a month and plus 4 points per year). The share of respondents who prefer to store cash decreased to 26% (minus 3 p. And minus 1 p. P., respectively). The share of those who prefer to spend was 30% (minus 0.2 p. And plus 0.8 p.).
According to Rosstat, published in the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), on average in real terms, they increased by 3.9% of the year by 7.9% in January (January-February-5.8% against 10% for the same period of 2024). Analysts of the MMI Telegram channel notes that the main reason for the slowdown in salaries in the first quarter of this year is the transfer of annual bonuses for saving in the personalized personal income tax since 2025.
In February, a decrease in real salaries was observed in the highest paid industries – in oil (minus 0.5%year), in finance (minus 3.7%) and IT (minus 6.2%). “This is a story with a bonus. Its influence will be noticeable in March. We will be able to understand the steady trajectory of salary growth, only in the second quarter of 2025, ”analysts record, believing that real salaries this year will continue to grow by 4-6% in annual terms, exerting incessive effects. Recall, the Ministry of Economy in 2025 expects real salaries by 6.8% and inflation by 7.6% (See “Kommersant” from April 21).
