Conflicts Pakistan-India often occur according to a fixed pattern, but this time the unpredictability is greater

It is a well-known scenario in the South Asian subcontinent: India and Pakistan extract each other for Kashmir, the region to which both countries have claimed since their independence in 1947. They fought three wars on it. A well -known pattern took place for the past two decades: a provocative outburst of violence in Kashmir – the last time was that on April 22 an attack in which 25 tourists and a guide were murdered – leads to accusations of New Delhi to Pakistan’s address. India hits Militair to punish Pakistan for supporting militant groups. Pakistan is forced to answer.

For example, conflicts between India and Pakistan went in 2016 and 2019; Since then, small shelling has taken place on the file line that de facto acts as a border. The last real war was in 1999 when Pakistani troops crossed the border and followed a few bloody months.

The events since the April attack initially went according to the same scenario. India responded to the ‘Operation Sindoor’ attack in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, which consisted of attacks at nine locations. Then Islamabad tried to get his gram. Multiple evenings and nights in a row sent the drones to India, which states that we have prevented impact in at least fifteen targets. Analysts, national media and politicians immediately warned of escalation because neighboring countries both have nuclear weapons. But what makes the conflict unpredictable this time is that the geopolitical context is now different than with previous confrontations.

Drones and Jets

Starting with the visible: the attacks with rockets and drones. It is clear from the equipment which technological and military developments have experienced the countries and on which international partners they lean. In the ten years that he has now been India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi had his government and private companies invest heavily in his own military industry. This also includes the development of own drones, including in collaboration with Israeli defense companies. « India’s drone moment has arrived, » head Fortune India This week. Since the war in Ukraine, the unmanned flight devices have been indispensable in modern warfare, but in South Asia they were not yet seen in action.

The rest of the Indian Air Force has also been modernized and the purchasing has been spread. In addition to outdated Russian equipment, India nowadays also owns 36 French Rafale combat aircraft. Furthermore, the Indian Air Force nowadays also flies with the in-Jas aircraft built in its own country, for which American companies deliver parts. For example, India has more intimate ties with Western countries.

Unexpectedly, Pakistan’s claim was that it would have brought down at least one Rafale, and a total of five Indian combat aircraft during ‘Sindoor’. It used the J-10 for this purpose Fighter Jets Who bought it from China: the country where Pakistan has purchased more and more military equipment in recent years. « If this turns out to be true, then that is the first time that a Chinese combat pilot was in action against a European, » said Nicolas Blarel, Assistantial teacher international relations in Leiden. Against the Reuters news agency, experts argue that the ‘Dogfight’ It would have taken place between Indian and Pakistani combat aircraft, ‘Study material’ will be For war analysts.

For the counterattack the following night, Pakistan used drones – probably also of Chinese manner. For Beijing, for example, the flawed conflict between Pakistan and India is an « interesting test case » of the weapons that it supplied, says Blarel. That is extra interesting because India is traditionally a rival of China.

Lies

Incidentally, New Delhi has still not recognized the loss of those combat aircraft. And there is a lot of disinformation. Such as images of a burning harbor in Karachi, they turned out to be fake.

The Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif presented down, at least presented down Jets as a victory. But he is in a bad way in his own country, partly due to an economic crisis. He must share his power with General Asim Munir, the highest leader of the Pakistani army who is known as a hardliner.

A lot of pressure is also exerted on Indian Premier Modi to show themselves as a ‘strong man’. The attack in April in Indian Kashmir is the first terror campaign in which so many citizens were killed since Modi’s government in 2019 the Kashmir region deprived the special status that it had until then, with relative autonomy. That fits in with his agenda to place the predominantly Islamic Kashmir more and more under the central government of India and thus becoming part of its Hindu nationalist state. 200 million Muslims live in India, but most of the 1.4 billion Indians are Hindu.

Under the regime of Modi’s BJP party, the Kashmir region is heavily militarized. That leads to the undisputed center of this conflict: Kashmir itself. The conflict about the specific location of the dividing line between the two countries will ultimately have to be solved diplomatically. To get closer, the armed forces will first have to have de-escalaren.

The United States

De-escalation usually went through mediators during previous conflicts. The United States acted as a mediator in 2016 and 2019. Now the role of the US is unclear. Although India is an increasingly better ally, Vice President JD Vance called the conflict this week « essentially not our case. » In both countries, the US now has no ambassador, the vacancies are still open. The US appears to be ‘unfocust’, Blarel also sees.

Who can mediate then? China called for calmness earlier. « In the end, China does not need a crisis in the region, » says Blarel. According to him, that Beijing is going to mediate is not obvious. « It is in the position to put pressure on partner Pakistan. » After all, it not only has many weapons deals with that country, it is also closely involved in large infrastructure projects. A chance for China, says Blarel. « By influencing Pakistan to the world, China can show that it is responsible for these types of issues. »

With the cooperation of Merel Thie

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