Conflict between Pakistan and India seems extinguished, but the lack of a good hotline was noticeable this week

Three years ago, India accidentally fired a cross flight weapon in the direction of Pakistan. The projectile sparked at an altitude of more than twelve kilometers with three times the sound speed into Pakistani airspace to land at the city of Mian Channu, about five hundred kilometers south of the Pakistani capital Islamabad. The projectile, the Pakistani leadership said, had no load, and there were no injuries.

Nevertheless, the incident, according to the Indian Ministry of Defense, was the result of a « malfunction » during « routine maintenance work », could easily have consequences. According to most experts, the accidentally fired weapon was a Brahmos PJ-10 Cruise rocket, which can be equipped with a core head. In Islamabad, the launch could therefore have been easily intertected as a nuclear attack. A Pakistani government official He wondered against Reuters news agency Whether the accident meant that Nuclear Facht India « has prepared rockets aimed at Pakistan, without sufficient safety measures or a command and control system. » Moreover, the incident made something else clear: the government leaders of nuclear powers India and Pakistan do not have a direct communication channel to nuclear escalation in the bud.

In the past week, when the conflict between New Delhi and Pakistan escalated at a rapid pace, this loss made a direct hotline feel serious. In the night from Friday to Saturday, not only were killed by shelling over the Indian-Pakistan border, but both countries also performed air strikes on strategic goals deep in the hinterland, such as Air Force Bases. In such circumstances, an incorrect estimate of the intentions of the enemy was quickly made. On Saturday afternoon, the conflict seems to have cooled with the announcement of US President Trump that India and Pakistan have agreed an immediate ceasefire.

Cuba crisis

The first hotline Was that between Washington and Moscow, and saw life after the Cuba crisis of 1962. While the US and the Soviet Union balanced on the edge of a nuclear war, it took twelve hours before the Americans had deciphered and translated the first code message of Soviet’s leader Nikita Khrushtsjev. At that time, Khrushchev’s message from three thousand words was already outdated and the Soviets had set new requirements.

To prevent such situations in the future, the US and the Soviet Union signed it in Geneva in 1963 Memorandum of Understanding Regarding the Establishment of A Direct Communications Line. The first hotline ran over the seabed from Washington to Moscow via Copenhagen, Stockholm and Helsinki, and was intended for sending telex messages. A radio connection was set up via Tanger (Morocco) as a backup.

In 1971 a communication line was put into use via satellite connection, in 1984 the Hotline was on the proposal of President Reagan upgraded With two fax machines. In 2007 the first computer connection was set up, via both satellite connection as a fiber optic cable and Washington and Moscow can email and chat with each other, but not call. The red phone on the presidential agency is a fabrication of Hollywood.

Direct line between commanders

Arch enemies India and Pakistan have also made attempts in the past to simplify communication in crisis time. After the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war, a direct line was set between the highest military commanders in Islamabad and New Delhi. This hotline between the two Directors General of Military Operations (DGMO) is used weekly, but the communication is taken on both sides with a much needed grain of salt.

« An important disadvantage of the DGMO hotel is that because of the deep mutual distrust, both parties have not always been transparent to share information during crises, » wrote the Basic think tank last year After conversations between nuclear experts in both India and Pakistan. « Moreover, there are concerns that the other party could use the DGMO channel for deception. »

A second Indian-Pakistani hotline-between the two Ministries of Foreign Affairs-is not sufficiently trusted by both parties. In a report on crisis management between the two countries, Basic therefore made the urgent recommendation to achieve a direct line between the government leaders of both countries. When skirmishes broke out in 2019 on the Indian-Pakistan border and air strikes were fired over and over, the Pakistani ambassador in New Delhi called the announcement that the then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan wanted to call with colleague Narendra Modi, but was not told that the Indian Prime Minister was notable. « The crucial missing part in the Indian-Pakistan security architecture is a formal hotline from leader to leader, » Basic noted last year.

Dangerous, given the threats that were exchanged between India and Pakistan last week. Two days ago Pakistan’s Minister of Defense Khawaja Asif warned about the risk of a nuclear war. Last Saturday, the Pakistani armed forces reported that the National Command Authority(NCA), the government body that decides on the deployment of nuclear weapons, now called together – a message that defense minister ASIF a few hours later denied again. The denial followed After several phone calls From the American Foreign Minister Marco Rubio. Then the news came about a cease-fire that immediately started.

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