Conclave, first contacts and tests of alliances between freshmen and « great voters »: there are neither the archbishop of Milan, nor the patriarch of Venice

Sometimes i conclavi they work as neither The stolen letter by Edgar Allan Poea crime classic, with agents who seek everywhere by dismantling floors and walls until the Inspector Dupin has a stroke of genius and discovers that the letter was in the most viewed place of the house: just above the fireplace shelf in the living room. No hidden candidates, the elected in Sistine is the name that at the beginning was the strongestso evident that no one or almost no one had considered it: it happened in 2005 to Joseph Ratzinger, considered a « great voter » until the moment he sprouted smiling by the loggia of blessings. Other times, however, the elected is a really surprise: like Jorge Mario Bergogliowhich in 2013 was 76 years old and in the classic lists of the « eligible » there was a tendency to exclude because, after the renunciation of Benedict XVI, the general belief was that a relatively young Pope would be elected.

In any case, the conclaves are by definition unpredictable, Also because in the end you choose a person, not a mental scheme or an idea, and perhaps the voters themselves change orientation during the meetings preceding the vote. The general congregations of the cardinals, started yesterday, they mark the days of the vacant venue during which the voters are studied and also the purple ultraottanenteni, who will not enter the Sistine, they can play their role.

All as always, It was not that this year the situation manages to be even more complicated. It was Francesco who blowed up points of reference Classics like the dioceses called a « cardinal » time. So, to say, he will enter the conclave The bishop of Como Oscar Cantoni but not Mario Delpini, Archbishop in Milan, the largest diocese in Europe which in the twentieth century gave two popes (Pius XI and Paul VI) to the Church. In the same way he will not vote in Sistine Francesco Moraglia, a patriarch of Venice as were three popes (Pius X, John XXIII and John Paul I) in the last century.

The symbol image of this conclave It could be the one taken on September 2, 2023, in Ulan Bator, in Mongolia, an unprecedented photo, which shows Francesco in a wheelchair in front of the cathedral and around him one thousand five hundred faithful smiling posters: they are the Catholics who arrived from every corner of Mongolia, All from the first to the last, it was not butThe success that the Church of an entire country entered into one shot. Next to the pope is seen Giorgio Marengo, Missionary of the small community and apostolic prefect that Bergoglio, the year before, had appointed cardinal not even fifty years. He will be there, but there will be no archbishops of Paris or Los Angeles.

Thus the Pope of the suburbs has revolutionized the Cardinal College, never so international: 135 voters who come from 71 countries of all continents. The Europeans continue to represent the relative majority (53,), but the voters of Asia (23), Latin America (21), of Africa (18) and also of Oceania (4), RThey will make sure as the cardinals of the old continent and those of North America (16).

The country with multiple voters remains Italy, With 17 cardinals who are actually 19 considering the patriarch of Jerusalem Pierbattista Pizzaballa And, in fact, the apostolic prefect in Mongolia. But after all, the fundamental data is not so much the composition of an increasingly Eurocentric and increasingly representative college of the South of the world. The central point, more trivially, is that many of the purple do not know each other, They have never seen themselves in their lives nor have they ever exchanged a word.

All this will end up making it more important The role of some cardinals, known by most, who will be able to represent a point of reference for the conclave freshmen, « great voters » capable of supporting the priority of some themes and promoting the names most similar to them. At the entrance of the Synod Chamber, Yesterday morning, two by two, Cardinal Guineano Robert Sarah came in two by two With the American Raymond Leo Burke, leader of the conservatives and the internal resistance to Bergoglio, and shortly thereafter the Cardinal Maltese Mario Grech With the Jesuit Luxembourg Jean-Claude Hollerich, two of Francesco’s closest collaborators.

And then they are also the ultraottanententeni who always enjoy great respect And influence: from Camillo Ruini to the archbishop emeritus of Vienna, Christoph Schönborn. What is valid for the great voters, moreover, also applies to the so -called papabiles, which in any case will apply their influence. Natural that are considered to be favored those figures at the same time prestigious and known by everyone, all the more if they deemed capable, for their moderation, to keep the souls of the conclave together. Starting with the secretary of state Pietro Parolin, 70 years, large and architect of the agreement with China. And by two other Italians: Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69 years old, chosen by Bergoglio as a peace correspondent for Ukraine, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 59 years old, The patriarch of Jerusalem which has been a fundamental figure of balance for years in the most difficult area of ​​the planet.

Among the so -called conservatives, The most accredited candidate is Péter Erdö, 73 years old, Archbishop of Budapest. In Africa, the charism of Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65 years old, Archbishop of Kinshasa, was established. The names of the bishop of Stockholm is also made in Europe Anders Arborelius, 75, from Juan José Omella, Barcelona, and the archbishop of Marseille Jean-Marc Aveline, 66 years old, progressive such as the Americans Blase Cupich, 75 years old, archbishop of Chicago, and Joseph W. Tobin, 72 years old, Newark’s archbishop. Asian candidates remain strong: Luis Antonio Tagle, 67 years old, Filipino of Chinese mother and South Korean Lazarus You Heung-Sik, 73 years old, Outgoing prefect of the dicastery for the clergy.