Colonel rated the upcoming Zapad exercises: quiet times no longer exist

Reserve colonel Vaidotas Malinionis spoke more to LNK’s news.

– I think quiet times are basically no longer exist. Zapad exercise scenarios have not changed for many years – and this time the scenario will be directed to confrontation with the West, that is, to us. Various military games will be imitated and played, namely the impact on the Baltic States, Poland. By all established order, if this type of exercise is organized one side, similar exercises must be organized on the other side, that is, the West. In order to outweigh and eliminate the effect of surprise, if they are in Zapad exercises in one way or another after the exercise, the umbrella brings together a contingent of a certain size that can be very quick to mobilize and start even military operations against NATO states, including us.

LNK stop shot.

– There is a talk of 13 thousand. soldiers. It is noted that Belarus is absolutely under Russia’s influence. The Russians can use any Belarusian polygons, which makes it difficult to see the intelligence task to see how those forces are actually approaching. What size is this challenge for NATO intelligence?

– There are always challenges for intelligence. As a rule, Russia never reveals the true number of soldiers. It is or enlarged, now I don’t know, you have to look. The times of the verifier ended when there was some confidence when the NATO representatives were invited to the exercise. This is no longer a long time ago, so there is zero confidence. We can only say how many soldiers there will be, but the intelligence capacity available can accurately determine the real number of soldiers. There is also a technical movement – how much barracks are used, how much additional outdoor tents are built. All this is counted. I want to emphasize – NATO is also planning a big exercise at a similar time to be a counterweight to eliminate the surprise effect of unexpected attacks.

– When a wide -scale invasion in Ukraine began, the Zapad exercise was not taken for granted – the Russians did not have staff. Now we see that they do the exercises, even though the war continues. What can this signal for us? Is it more of a show that you can do, even when you war, can the Russians actually start to fill in their own and armament and staff?

– I think they may be trying to do it. There are signs that barracks’ fragments, filing sites, helicopters were built on the Russian side, on the Russian side. These are not enormous quantities, but Finns take it very seriously. It is clear that Russia’s war with Ukraine costs a lot and requires a lot of resources. If you want to have some progress in the front line – there is almost no progress, but at least keep the initiative – you have to focus everything you have there. I very much doubt if they will be able to mobilize those capable units, but I do not think it will be very numerous, and it is probably the desire to show that we are irresistible. Putin believes in it and tries to convince the West that their strength and capabilities are inexhaustible, which, of course, is impossible. The West sometimes believes in it, and apparently that exercise is one of the ways to show again what Russia is powerful. I do not reject the possibilities of certain provocations.

Full LNK Report – In Video:

– incidents that were talked about. How should we react – are you worried about Brussels, or hard as Finland?

– I think the time of concern is over. Concerning as in Brussels, we see that this is absolutely not working and requires specific steps. Let us hope that the exercises organized by the NATO states will be taken into account and prepared. Of course, our country has to be prepared because we are at the border, that exercise can be right next to us – both the Goža landfill can be used, which are near Druskininkai, other places and Poland. There must be very close coordination with the Polish state, prepared border staff, as well as border reinforcement procedures and prepared reserves.

– Remigijus Baltrėnas, Chief of Defense Staff, says the biggest threats come from Russia and Belarus. It is there that new polygons should appear – either large or two smaller ones. Would you also see those places suitable for polygons? What’s better – one big or two smaller?

– I would absolutely think that it would be better to be two smaller and one big together. We have a 600 km long wall, knowing that there is also a large Goža landfill, where artillery, tanks shoot. We have nothing in that place – when we have no landfill, we cannot focus and prepare the contingent. Logically, a very rational alternative – how to discourage the enemy with the same size polygons as them.