« City Killer » asteroid’s probability of hitting the Moon has increased – Cyprus Newspaper
The asteroid called 2024 YR4, which was thought to be a threat to the world before, has now increased likely to hit the Moon. According to scientists, this collision can provide important information for planet defense.
Asteroid, called 2024 YR4 and is about 60 meters in diameter, was first discovered at the end of 2023. At that time, the calculations made on December 22, 2032 showed that the possibility of impacting the Earth was around 3 percent of a global scale.
However, NASA’s new data by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) revealed that the risk of hitting the Earth is almost zero, but the possibility of hitting the Moon has increased.
The probability of hitting the Moon rose to 4.3 percent
NASA announced that new observations reduced the uncertainty of asteroid orbit by 20 percent. Accordingly, 2024 YR4’s possibility of hitting the moon rose from 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent. Nevertheless, the probability of missing the Moon is over 95 percent.
A possible impact on the Moon will be a rare event in terms of the multiplication of an asteroid of this size in the modern age.
Critical Opportunity for Planet Defense
Richard Moissl, President of the European Space Agency Planet Defense Office, described this as “a really interesting script in scientific terms”. Moissl said such a impact can offer important data for the development of planetary defense technologies.
Scientists also examined the features of asteroid’s absorption of sunlight and spreading heat. The analyzes showed that this object is rich in silicate and that it came from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
Currently, the 2024 YR4 behind the Sun cannot be observed with telescopes. However, researchers expect the JWST to enter the field of view in the first half of 2026 as the asteroid progresses along the orbit around the Sun.
