Cement consumption forecast in Russia until 2027

The reduction in the rate of housing construction and implementation of infrastructure projects will be the main reason for the fall in cement consumption over the next two years. According to the results of 2025, demand may decrease by 7.5%, in 2026 – by another 0.5%. This will lead to a decrease in the loading of cement plants and, accordingly, an increase in production cost, experts warn.

Cement consumption in Russia can be reduced for two years: in 2025 – by 7.5% for a year, up to 61.4 million tons, in 2026 – by 0.5%, to 61.2 million tons, it is predicted in Soyuz -chain (unites the largest producers of cement) and the consulting company SMPP. The conservative scenario of the Ministry of Economy implies a decrease in cement consumption in 2025 by 11.9% year (up to 58.5 million tons) and 5.6% in 2026 (up to 55.2 million tons). The base forecast of the Ministry indicates a reduction by 5.2% a year by the year (up to 62.9 million tons) and an increase of 1.2% (up to 63.7 million tons), respectively. In 2027, all three scenarios lay a shift in the trend: consumption will grow by 2-8.2% year by the year.

Cement is the basic material, the volume of its consumption characterizes the state of the construction industry, says Daria Martynkin, Executive Director of Soyuz -cement. The forecast, according to her, allows manufacturers to optimize capacities and plan investments. This is relevant, taking into account the capital intensity of production. The forecast is based on observations, a survey of consumers, factories, authorities, noted in the SMEP.

The main factor in the reduction in cement consumption in 2025–2026 in Soyuz -chain and SMPPPs is called the fall in the pace of housing construction.

According to the analytical center Dom.rf, in March 2025, projects were announced in the primary market of Russia for 8.1 million square meters. m, which is less than 24% year old.

Reducing the withdrawal of new projects is a predicted situation in the conditions of cooling the economy, says President of the Basic Civil Code Alexander Ruchev. The trend, according to him, will last two or three years. Aigul Yusupova, managing partner of the UNIKEY development company, explains that the availability for loan developers has decreased along with an increase in their need for them. If earlier 20% of lots were sold in installments, now-70%, this reduces the rate of filling of escrow accounts, she explains. The A101 Civil Code explained that the company reduces the purchase of commodity concrete, the main component of which is cement.

The managing partner of the SMPP, Vladimir Guz explains that housing construction simultaneously ensures the construction of commercial and sociocultural facilities. Given them, the industry forms 50% of cement consumption. The negative impact on the market, according to SMEP, can also have the completion of investment projects in infrastructure construction. Budget funds are now reoriented to other industries – the social sphere and defense industry, says Elena Komissarova, CEO of Bel Development Group of Companies.

Mrs. Komissarova says that the general cement -intensive construction is also reduced: developers introduce new technologies and materials providing for a reduction in its use. “The proportion of projects using light and rapid structures is increasing,” she says. Denis Usoltsev, director of the Marketing and Strategic Analysis Department of Cemros, suggests that manufacturers will feel the reduction in cement consumption from the second half of 2025. Although the negative trend, according to him, is already tracing: in the first quarter, the indicator lost 6% a year by the year.

Mr. Guz says that a decrease in consumption by 3% in the whole country is equivalent to the closure of one plant. Cement is not for long -term storage products, it is impossible to warewell it for sale in a couple of months, Mr. Usoltsev explains. According to him, production is calculated based on confirmed applications from buyers. The expert recalls that export capabilities for Russian cement manufacturers are now very limited, and the presence of imported products on the market is growing.

Vladimir Guz calls the fall in demand by a factor that negatively affects the profitability of cement business. The index for net profit, according to preliminary estimates for 2024, amounted to 13%, he says. “Any decrease in production leads to an increase in cost: the greater the volume of production lags behind, the higher the price of the product,” the expert argues. Denis Usoltsev says that the costs of cement manufacturers this year can grow by 11–22%, and the services of third -party contractors will rise in price by 30–35%.

Mr. Guz does not exclude that taking into account the aggravation of competition in certain regions in the short term, the market value of cement will decrease. But in the long -term – a drop in consumption will become a driver in prices, the expert believes. The Practice of the Real Estate of the NEO consulting company Arina Matveeva notes that even the growth of demand for cement, which is predicted for 2027, depends on many factors, including geopolitical stability, inflation and the dynamics of mortgage lending.

Alexandra Meretsalov